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Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

  • This topic has 215 replies, 42 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by SnagsSnags.
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  • #490391
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    I used to teach primitive skills, but aventually I could not afford to pay the insurance cover so had to stop. Now I teach through books & videos/DVDs & through our 18th century Living History Group. Our group insurance costs only $16.00 per year per member, & I teach for free. Group membership is also free as I am paying that out of my own pocket.

    Anyone in our area (Armidale, Tamworth, Guyra, Inverell, Glen Innes, Uralla NSW ) is welcome to join our group, but keep in mind it is a Living History group.

    Regards, Keith.

    Attached files

    WHOWEAREWHATWEDO.2012update.docx (16.2 KB)

    #490392
    BullseyeBullseye
    Member

    Hey folks, there will never be “no oil”, we humans can make oil and lots of it for everything! The oil we can and do already make is in fact better quality than crude oil from the ground. Everything we now derive from crude oil, for transport, pharmaceuticals, plastics etc, etc, the whole gamut, we humans can also derive from the oil we can make. It’s essentially the same stuff except it’s brand new rather than old fossils!! :laugh:

    Crude oil was created millions of years ago derived mostly from algae. That’s where much of the human made oil comes from and will mostly come from, algae, grown in ponds, fermenters, bioreactors.

    A huge multibillion dollar industry will emerge, it’s already started, and will bloom when the crude oil becomes more difficult to obtain. The same players in “big oil” will be the players in “farmed oil”, “renewable oil”, bio-oil” what ever ya want to call it…

    Here’s one news website on the emerging industry.

    http://www.algaeindustrymagazine.com/department/the-buzz/

    #490393
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Bullseye post=336818 wrote: we humans can make oil and lots of it for everything!

    The problem to date is scalability. We consume so much of the stuff at present that synthesising enough of it would require several more planets’ worth of real estate.

    We will never actually run out of oil, because there will always be reserves that are hard to get at and are not economical to extract from the ground. The problem is not one of running out absolutely, but of running out of oil that is cheap enough to continue fuelling the economies of our high technology civilisation.

    The linked problem is Global Warming. All the oil-based fuels, whether fossil or new, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere when they are burnt. Even if we can synthesise enough oil to fuel ongoing economic growth, the CO2 dragon will still have to be faced.

    The ultimate problem is that there are too many of us and we are pumping too much carbon into our only atmosphere. We are like a plague of mice, consuming the finite resources of our only planet. When the accessible resources run out, when the climate changes we are locking in to the system start to operate, what do you think will happen to our population? Here’s a clue: think about what happens to the mice.

    #490394
    Anonymous
    Guest

    does this include palm oil from palms planted in the devastated rain forests of indonesia and malaysia?

    there are other trees that say cane farmers could diversify into planting on their farms, instead of destroying more habitat.

    i dunno maybe use the oil from rape, canola and soy instead of feeding the stuff to humans.

    gotta watch we don’t put man before the habitat, that won’t suit the new order of things. they have had decades to develop things but done nought but sit on their hands and make us little people pay.

    Que Sera, Sera hey what will be will be

    len

    #490395
    BullseyeBullseye
    Member

    Hey owlbrudder, regarding “synthesising enough of it would require several more planets’ worth of real estate”, on good authority that area you state is very inaccurate. That’s preposterously inaccurate. Did you make that up?

    One example, the chief NASA Scientist, stated some time ago, on then halophyte, algae and cyanobacteria oil technology/yields an area less than the size of the Sahara desert is what would be required to produce for all our current crude oil use. The type of land required need only be desert and the use of salt water and bio-waste, not good Ag land nor fresh water.

    Scalability is no problem, with current technology and it is improving greatly practically daily.

    There’s much competitiveness in these areas. One must keep abreast of technology breakthroughs like it’s a vocation in order to not fall behind in “saying” what is and isn’t possible. Much like being a computer techo (as I was) for a living, one can’t manage that job adequately without constantly doing the homework on what is new. I was also a biological researcher/consultant so I well understand the importance of where renewable hydrogen as an transport fuel and for electricity production fits in with the “CO2 dragon”.

    Competition between emerging “green oil”, “synthetic oil” production business and the emerging hydrogen fuel production business will facilitate to drive prices down. This will likely be due to “green oil” supplied as an “diesel” and “petrol” product and where hydrogen will be used in diesel engines, petrol engines and the fuelcell/electric vehicles that all major motor vehicle manufacturers will have available from 2015.

    Tell me honestly, how often do you update your knowledge of these technologies which you essentially claim are inadequate? Where did you get the area of real estate figure from? 🙂

    For tomorrow and or the next, there is likely yet another major breakthrough in efficiency and scalability.

    Ending crude oil dependence, “there is an embarrassing number of ways to do this” – Dennis Bushnell

    Dennis Bushnell is the chief scientist at NASA’s Langley Research Center.

    #490396
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Bullseye post=336839 wrote: Hey owlbrudder, regarding “synthesising enough of it would require several more planets’ worth of real estate”, on good authority that area you state is very inaccurate. That’s preposterously inaccurate. Did you make that up?

    No, that is a figure I have seen bandied about, but in fairness it was probably the figure for arable land to grow seed crops for ethanol production, not for the production of bacterial stocks. Mea culpa for projecting in that way.

    Bullseye post=336839 wrote: One example, the chief NASA Scientist, stated some time ago, on then halophyte, algae and cyanobacteria oil technology/yields an area less than the size of the Sahara desert is what would be required to produce for all our current crude oil use. The type of land required need only be desert and the use of salt water and bio-waste, not good Ag land nor fresh water.

    If the reality meets the claims you quote, that would be both remarkable and wonderful.

    Bullseye post=336839 wrote: I well understand the importance of where renewable hydrogen as an transport fuel and for electricity production fits in with the “CO2 dragon”.

    To me, hydrogen is the great hope, but it always seems to be five years away from becoming a viable industry. If we can ramp it up quickly enough, it has the potential to be the fuel for the future.

    Bullseye post=336839 wrote: Tell me honestly, how often do you update your knowledge of these technologies which you essentially claim are inadequate?

    You are quite right, I am not in the loop, so only see the breakthroughs during general browsing of the Web. The bleeding edge will always be ahead of my knowledge.

    Bullseye post=336839 wrote: For tomorrow and or the next, there is likely yet another major breakthrough in efficiency and scalability.

    Like you, I hope that technology will come to our rescue in time to avert the dangers of AGW. I hope that fusion reactors will become viable in the near future and I hope that we can painlessly transition to a hydrogen economy.

    Perhaps the difference between us is that I am not convinced that these things will happen in time to help us avoid global warming of several degrees, or to avoid the economic dislocation of Peak Oil. It is good to hope, but it is also good to be a realist. In the true spirit of scepticism, I am prepared to be convinced by the evidence.

    #490397
    BlueWrenBlueWren
    Member

    This thread is so interesting.Thanks.I genuinely wish I had another 50 or 60 years ahead of me to see how it all pans out! I’m aiming for another 30 anyway!!

    #490398
    RobyneRobyne
    Member

    I think these web site might help people look toward surviving

    http://www.treehugger.com

    http://www.getreadyforflu.org

    http://www.livingoffgrid.org

    http://www.budget101.com

    they have all kinds of ideas for you to read

    #490399
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    There are plenty o Australian survival sites on the net, I prefer to follow them. Overseas sites just don’t relate to us here in Australia.

    #490400
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Very interesting debate Owelbrudder and Bullseye.

    Time will tell I guess, but I am hopeful Bullseye’s faith in a Human scientific/technological ‘fix’ for our crude oil reliance (be it Algae or Hydrogen) will come to fruition. :tup:

    Whilst there have been some promising developments in Algal Fuels and Hydrogen, I do have concerns and share Owlbrudder’s opinion, that the commercial viability and indeed the scalability still needs to be tested. Whilst I appreciate this is probaby several years away, until this is seen and analysed, I will remain on the sceptical side.

    I know the big oil companies are all looking at all forms of renewables, but I wonder if it has been left a little late. With the current financial climate and GFC 2 (or worse) not to far away, the investment required and risks involved may not be acceptable to shareholders etc. Once again time will tell.

    Keep up the interesting debate gents. :tup:

    #490401
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    DB346 post=336905 wrote: Very interesting debate Owelbrudder and Bullseye.

    Just to clarify, Bullseye and I agree about the exciting possibilities and both fervently hope they will pan out. My problem is that I am a sceptic, in that I want to see production-scale implementation of these technologies before I heave a sigh of relief.

    I will be very interested to follow the unfolding technology story and hope that Bullseye will do us the favour of keeping us up to date here. He (?) is much better informed than I am at that level.

    Anything that can reduce the threat of AGW is very welcome balm to my soul.

    #490402
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Bullseye and others may be interested in this post at Skeptical Science, concerning cutting edge biofuels. A very interesting topic.

    #490403
    BullseyeBullseye
    Member

    Hey owlbrudder, thanks for the link to the video. Bravo! :tup:

    That was worth watching, for the obvious reasons, also since my internet is shaped at the moment and took hours to d/l LOL.

    Soon as I saw Bilal Bomani’s name attached the video I knew it was worth watching. Now it’s time for sleep… zzz

    #490404
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Thanks OB.

    Just watched. What a great concept. Let us all hope the ‘Test Bed’ passes and enables large scale commercial operations to be set up. Would be very interested to know what energy is used to produce the algae fuel. It was touched on briefly in the presentation.

    Will certainly keep an eye on that one.

    #490405
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    I just posted this on another thread. People here might find it interesting, if a little alarmist/alarming. Perhaps very alarming, if you believe everything in the video. Not sure I do, but still interesting.

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