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Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 216 total)
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  • #490316
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    I have no idea what will happen. I mean fuel prices going up will mean less money in the hand, it will also mean higher prices for products that have to travel. But anything could happen between now & then. I find it really hard to get my head around anything like this happening. If it does, it could lead to riots such as we have seen in the UK recently. Some people have really bad living conditions now, it would not take much to tip them over the edge.

    We are covered for any survival situation that does not require an underground bunker! But, if we know longer had an income, and the local council still demanded we pay rates, then there will be trouble.

    #490317
    BootstrapperBootstrapper
    Member

    I think that Industrial civilisation is about forty years into a crash that will take another fifty years to play out.

    When observing the decline and fall of big, complex systems you don’t see a steady decline; As the rescource-base declines the complex, rescource-hungry systems and institutions that depend on them collapse suddenly, but not completely. They re-emerge smaller and simpler, in keeping with reduced rescource base. As the rescource base continues to erode, these smaller institutions and and systems will also collapse when the declining rescource base can no longer support them. This process resembles a series of ‘steps’ rather than a ‘smooth slope’ and will continue until a stable rescource base is reached. After the first crash – global finance (and with it, the house-price bubble) for example – things may roll along more-or less smoothly for a few years before the next set of institutions – airlines (and with them, global tourism) for another example, go belly-up. John Greer talks about the Primary, Secondary and Tertiary economies in Wealth of Nature. I.m.o., institutions and systems that operate primarily in his Tertiary economy are the most vulnerable to systemic collapse in the near-term.

    The trick will be to make sure the wealth you already have, doesn’t go down with these sinking ships.

    #490318
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Bump! :whistle:

    Noting what is now being reported (finally!) Article from the Australian on Second GFCand some previous predictions on ALS Where does the money come From?, I thought now was a good time to revisit some of the scenarios/realities of what is happening. Plenty of people here said we were on our way to a second GFC or worse and it would appear we are still on this trajectory.

    Keep up those preparations :whistle:

    #490319
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    I must admit that I have no idea what your abreviations stand for, but I did hear on the news this morning of a vegetable oil fuel plant in Australia. This would take care of the diesle engines.

    I guess I really don’t expect anything much to happen for quite a while. If prices of fuel go up drastically then it will certainly slow things down. Our biggest problem would be not being able to get to work, but still having to find the money to pay the rates. No rates to pay, no problem. But will local councils make such concessions?!

    #490320
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Sorry

    GFC = Global Financial Crisis

    ALS = Aussies Living Simply

    #490321
    mistyhollowsmistyhollows
    Member

    My inlaws have just gone and bought a diesel car so they can run it on biofuel and we are considering it for later this year. Has anyone else done this or is going to? Any ideas on the best type of car to run on biofuel?

    #490322
    roadwarriorroadwarrior
    Member

    Misty,

    where are you going to get the oil/biomatter to convert into biodiesel?

    My opinion is that making your own biofuels is a fruitless exercise. You are going to need large quantities of raw ingredients, some of which would be better off eaten rather than burnt, lots of caustic soda, a lot of time and energy to make it, and in any type of fuels crisis it is best to keep a low profile rather than happily chugging around on biofuels.

    Also, if it becomes known you have the ability to do this, your place will be one of the first the looters pays a visit to.

    The most common form of transport in a crisis will be the humble bicycle.

    rw

    #490323
    Anonymous
    Guest

    to me it all seems fruitless to do anything much at all, all quite academic in a way once fuel of any sort stops (and making your own diesels requires you to use fuel to bi-product for fuel and also uses AC power to blend and crack it). so when those around you begin to get hungry and thirsty and if they think you have a vehicle with fuel you will be a prime target, they will take all you stored and growing food as they step over you.

    this picture is much bigger than i have seen in these sort of post, these posts only scratch surface, of what may be ahead. governments are making constitutional changes behind our backs.

    so while some of the masses get into this surface stuff many are drawn to sport worship at the very least, that keep inquiring mind active while they do their slight of hand work.

    a horse and cart maybe the best mode of transport so long as you can grow enough food and do your own farrier and wheelwright work, but then what are you going to do travel to the shops to buy whatever expensive food is there only to be held up violently on the way home and relieved of you purchases and horse and cart lucky to be left alive.

    we no longer grow food locally and without fuel we in qld can’t get food from the darling downs lot alone north west western Australia. the farmers will go broke, they will be far enough away to grow their own food have their own meat, eggs and milk. insulated for a time.

    if the gov’ control oil prices in bed with the oil co’s then they control us, which they do. and when you can no longer pay land rates they will evict you.

    we are to divide so we will fall.

    len

    #490324
    mauzimauzi
    Member

    My goodness, humanity survived for millions of years without fuel…yes it will require life changes…in my opinion for the better anyway, and yes there will be a time of adjustment and most likely violence in certain sectors, but my hope is for an eventual better world then the one we currently live in. We, as a race, presently are in such a state of self destruction it will very likely take something of this magnitude to get our heads straight.

    In regards to fuel and transport there is not a “one size fits all” answer. Many modes of getting around could be possible including walking (as used to be done), handcarts, bicycles if you live in a town, horses, horse and carts, charcoal burning vehicles (which were used during the 2nd world war, and are still used in NZ), people can produce ethanol, bio diesel. The plans for building a charcoal burner are available on the web, alcohol is a reflux still (purchasable in any home brew shop) and bio diesel requires a crushing plant (also available on the web).

    In regards to bio diesel, if one feels they want to drive some sort of vehicle or power plant, or tractor the bio diesel is not just a fuel but the cake left over from the crushed seeds can be fed to animals, the waste plant used within the composting and so forth. This would not be a one person operation but more of a community action. Most likely you could make your own caustic from lye.

    Now, looking from today’s consciousness, you could say all of the above is not possible, but we would not be looking from today’s consciousness, that is whole point, but from one of community co operation, village mentality including growing food and people, as they have done for millions of years, useing their personal leanings and skills to fit within that picture. This is not an individual doing everything picture..although for a while it would be advisable to have as many skills as possible.

    Humanity, in my opinion, is at its best in adversity and there always has been those within the picture that take the easy option of crime…nothing new there.

    We see the picture from Western eyes, but currently in the world (in parts of every continent) there are people who will hardly even notice the change and who already live, to some degree, without the “things” we call normal. It can be done, it is already being done in other parts of the world…we are the slow ones.

    #490325
    GrethGreth
    Member

    For us, fuel presents a problem because we are so far from community centres. By foot or bike or camel it will take a full day to get to a decent sized community to exchange goods.

    Three forces take whatever they want of money. One is the govt, you cant refuse increases in charges. Next the banks take as much as they want. Then the stupidmarket monopoly charges whatever they like. All three have pretty much run their course, they cant take much more from the average Joe cos they got it all already. Stupidmarkets have kinda noticed this and introduced some cheapish products so we can stay alive long enough to earn a bit and spend something. Banks are cutting back on stupidity, so that ppl can live long enough to keep paying. Cant help thinking there was a reason Christians could never be moneylenders.

    Govt just keeps upping things like traffic fines, now a speeding ticket costs a pensioner food money for three months, shout out, this is WRONG. 2kph over the speed limit should not mean you starve. WRONG, its a naughty, maybe, but only a minor naughty. $200 fine is a slap on the wrist for the rich, is a sentence of poverty for months for the poor. Bring in a graduated fine system related to income, so its just a penalty not a death sentence.

    We need to let authorities know we are not a bottomless pit, and we can see the bottom now, its not far away. We hardworking average families are suffering, we dont get a rebate on school uniform because we buy it all from opshops, and mend it by hand.

    #490326
    crystalcrystal
    Member

    I dont know much on this topic, only what i will do when something happens.

    I dont believe any govt will help us in any likely scenario. They will colapse eventually, or our faith in them will and we will be alone in our quests. Humans will blame our ‘Society’ for any collapse and will avoid other people.

    For years ive had a plan in my head, think of it like a filing system. My ‘end of the world’ file contains notes on millions of subjects, for use if something happens quickly. My main focuses are:

    -Transport: If the city fails, how do i get myself, my kids and what we need OUT of the city!? We’d need to carry a few things with us such as books, tools, seeds and other basics. Bikes with trailers? Shopping trolleys and walk?

    -Information will be invaluable. Books, notes or even experience in things that do not require money or power will be worth more than anything. I have a large ‘mind file’ on this subject. And its been my long term goal to do as much as i can, and more. Even if its not valued now, i will be invaluable one day 😉

    -Supplies: To start over what will i need? Hand tools, seeds, some basic equipment like bowls, pots, utensils, knives, hunting tools, flints. Durable clothing, shoes, weather protection. Basic housing things, quality rope, tarp or other roofing material. Long life foods to sustain us while we set up, must be easy to transport. If this option fails, i will resort to stealing to keep my family alive, but id steal a sheep, not a L of milk. This mind file has notes on where to find these things and also a run down of what each member of my family will require, basic amounts and lots of other info. Medical supplies are in here too. Penicillian, bandages etc.

    -Location: Obviously Sydney will not be the best place, thus the transport. I’ll head North, and find a sunny spot near a fresh water river with plenty of trees near.

    -Skills: Knowledge is one thing, but it will not actually build a house! Cooking, carpentry, sewing, crocheting, first aid. Learning what i can already.

    -Security: Saftey of my family, defence skills.

    So, no matter what happens, i have a plan for a slow decline, which im already puttin into action, and for an atomic crumbling, i know what i am going to do.

    So, yes, im as odd as you guys. I mentioned my fears to my step-mother once, she looked at me very funny… But i will come out on top.

    I think it is our mentality as a group that is causing our decline, and the only way to overcome it is to think like a single person. Not to be selfish, but to survive, incase one day there is only one person!

    Over time, after the collapse, id like to see small communities who are self sufficiant, and for trade of basic items between communities. Yes, i love my life, i love what i have, but i will not let my love of convienence kill me. If i had my way there would never be any money, no electricity, and my new life will not have people who are not commited to the greater good of the community.

    It sounds archaic, and it is. But i think they got it right all those years ago. Without money, power, religon etc, the world would be a better place!

    #490327
    Anonymous
    Guest

    g’day crystal,

    about getting out of the cities as they will be shut them off from the outside, they already have done army and police exercises to see how quick they can shut the gates, brisbane about 2 hours. our personal objective is to out of the cities early enough to create another life so a further move can happen with little fan fare.

    by the time if becomes full on obvious could be too late.

    anyhow just how we see it, not sure if there will be anything to come back to as we know it, lots of sorrows happening random killings in southern states, floods, landslides, ships sinking, storms volcanoes earthquakes all pretty much continual now for quiet sometime, even more infant trauma in road accidents.

    can’t ignore it all the above are in the news each day in some form or other. definitely not good news week any week.

    g’day greth,

    the gov’s and their cohort authorities are well into the their plan of control, and they are not about to turn back. would make not an iota of difference who one might vote in all contenders are corrupted or they would not be at a level to contend.

    take care

    len

    #490328
    crystalcrystal
    Member

    Oh yes garden len, my mind plan contains ideas on what the scenario might be that i might recognise early enough to get out early enough. Thats my slow plan, above was my unorganised quick plan. If i dont notice the signs early enough and am forced to leave quickly, at least i know what im taking with me.

    I guess its time i started to put this info on ‘paper’. Honestly, i am not prepared, i am a thinker by nature, and thinking time is up. I ‘think’ its preparation time…

    #490329
    GrethGreth
    Member

    The time to divorce yourself from the banks the stupidmarkets and the govt is now.

    As much as possible and as soon as possible. Is there a crisis? No not immediate one, just a slow creeping one, enough time to slowly creep out of the danger zone. did you see the petrol prices last week, will you starve yourself a bit more to pay a bit more?

    Hang on, you earned that money, and not for Woolies shareholders, its for yourself, buy what you actually need and cant get another way.

    #490330
    diannedianne
    Participant

    . If this option fails, i will resort to stealing to keep my family alive, but id steal a sheep, not a L of milk.

    just wondering how to steal a sheep is better than the milk?? to start, to steal is to steal, but to steal the sheep, you are stealing from someone and their family/kids as oposed to a supermarket. it is this thinking that it is alright to steal from others which is going to be part of the problem. also what are you going to do with a whole sheep?? if you are living next to a stream you have no way to keep the extra meat, as well as no way to deal with all the extra bits you can get from it. Would it not be better to try and work out some type of trade with this person whom owns that sheep? I know I would rather exchange some food for labour on my property rather than someone stealing food out of my childrens mouths.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 216 total)
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