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Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 216 total)
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  • #490301
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Haha No problems AndreH there are 2 of you? (If thats not a confusing question?)

    Not winning just you sound to be more on the same wavelength

    #490302
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Humbug post=304425 wrote: What do I think will happen ?

    Well it is simple really, as the oil becomes scarce.. only the fittest, strongest and most prepared and organised will survive, I guess ..

    Maintaining and extending my food forest helps keep me sane, whilst reading the ALS Peak Oil and Think Tank threads. One can feel like a loner with their ‘crazy thoughts and concerns’ .. that is until they log in here.

    Most folk IRL are emu’s.. they look at you like you are an alien should you bring up PO or the like.

    Hello Humbug,

    What do you mean by fittest, strongest? I just ask because I cant really see the local footy team doing too well :unsure: Prepared and organised I get, I really REALLY do not want to forget to buy something like salt or I’ll never have it again post po

    I tend to think those crazy concerns may just save peoples lives but then thats me and I do tend to be crazy and slightly concerning at times.

    #490303
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    FeyWind post=304442 wrote: In the short term, petrol and food prices will continue to rise. Recessions and depressions will become more common throughout the world – as will destabillisation of countries like Egypt etc. ‘Consumer confidence’ will continue to be low and retail will start to drop employees.

    In the medium term people who grow food without oil based products (including transported mulches, organic fertilizers etc) will have the benefit, they will not fall as much prey to the ever increasing prices. There will be more homeless and governments will not be able to pay as much unemployment benefits – think great depression. People will reuse things because they can’t afford to buy – not just ‘recycle’ thinking of the environment. More people will grow their own food – those that can.

    Hi Feywind,

    I think your Great depression connection is very apt, I have a few questions about this bit

    FeyWind post=304442 wrote: Smaller companies in the suburbs will do a bit better than city businesses as their employees don’t have to travel (and use oil) to get to work and therefore can cope with a lower wage.

    In the long term, we will probably go the way of cuba. Decentralised business and economics. Only then will technology start to catch up again and we will slowly cycle back to the consumeristic way of life which will cause problems with population and produce another downcycle.

    I’m not an expert or even a person who has looked at this a lot. It’s just my 2c

    If it comes to “More people will grow their own food – those that can.” what will the employees be eating? What business’ in the western world can be decentralised? Who will develop the technologies (just going back to the food issue) Who will fund their production? and who will buy them?

    #490304
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    I should probably add that I am not deliberatly trying to upset nor 2 up anyone with my replies, this is just how I examine things, by asking questions. I dont think that there is a right or wrong that any one can call until its over and done with and I find your replies to be invaluable as way for me to think about things from another veiwpoint, so thank you 🙂

    #490305
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    I’ll have to get back to this I’m tired :huh:

    #490306
    edensgateedensgate
    Member

    Well, I am mildly concerned for my family, since I am about to welcome debt back into into our lives in order to start a business (even though it is a business inspired by the Kinsale energy descent plan). At least our home isn’t at risk.

    I agree that several scenarios are likely to play out simultaneously, since some communities will be better prepared than others. But when I think about how our local community has responded to natural disasters (like floods and cyclones), personal disasters (like house-fires) I do feel hopeful that people will embrace things like rationing programs for energy, oil, etc, as they did during war times, and that our ingenuity will buoy us through the hard times. Human beings, by and large, are highly adaptable creatures.

    #490307
    Hummer HumbugHummer
    Keymaster

    GrumpyGert post=304510 wrote:

    What do I think will happen ?

    Well it is simple really, as the oil becomes scarce.. only the fittest, strongest and most prepared and organised will survive, I guess ..

    Maintaining and extending my food forest helps keep me sane, whilst reading the ALS Peak Oil and Think Tank threads. One can feel like a loner with their ‘crazy thoughts and concerns’ .. that is until they log in here.

    Most folk IRL are emu’s.. they look at you like you are an alien should you bring up PO or the like.

    Hello Humbug,

    What do you mean by fittest, strongest? I just ask because I cant really see the local footy team doing too well :unsure: Prepared and organised I get, I really REALLY do not want to forget to buy something like salt or I’ll never have it again post po

    Hi GrumpyGert,

    I think those who are of mentaly strong minds and a relatively fit and healthy will fair the best. I guess it is the same as now really, when I think about it, in this sense. I really don’t think it matters what sport you choose to play 😉

    Living the life our Grandparents and Great Grandparents lived required more physical strength than the average Joe uses today. And they had to be strong of mind too.

    I tend to think those crazy concerns may just save peoples lives but then thats me and I do tend to be crazy and slightly concerning at times.

    I tend to agree with you here.. I can relate ‘to be crazy and slightly concerning at times’ :laugh:

    #490308
    diannedianne
    Participant

    I am hoping for a gradual reduction in most things, this way I think people will have a better chance to get used to it and with this the chances of full blown wars ect are less likly. Now although I did say “hoping for” I am planing for an instant colapse aswell. I personally welcome the day of horse and carrage again, I just hope it dosnt happen to soon as I still need some more time to collect all the things and knowlage I will need to survive. I am finding this hard as I don’t have anybody in my life to talk to about this type of stuff or that has been through this type of thing. Thank the heavens for ALS and the other couple sites which contain these kinds of dissucions, and people would dont think Im crazzy ( if only about this topic;) ):lol:

    PS. I am one of “those” people with a big 4wd and I will be the one driving around when almost no one else is, because I will be running on my own home produced vege oil, and will also be able to carry 2 to 3 times the amount on that “last surply run”.;) Not all of us 4wd owners are all bad, there are a few of us that run our cars on the better choices, and in small amounts. And especilly keeping in mind the rual type of life I think will be neccerary, I personally think that the 4wd is better.

    #490309
    nessienoonessienoo
    Member

    If it’s a slow decline, I’m hoping to see continuing positive leadership by our local council. They are generally very proactive and responded very well to the recent flooding. (They have their issues as well. They’re not perfect.)

    I’m hoping to see community gardening programs and increased access to local markets to buy, sell or barter goods, skills and services.

    In a fast decline, I’m expecting a lot of hardship and civil disruption. Sadly, I believe a lot of people will not make it through. I’m trying to prepare but it’ll be a stressful time with a lot of worry. With 3 adults living in our house, at least we’ll be able to cover the whole 24 hour day for security.

    Generally, whether it’s fast or slow, our ‘world’ will shrink. Our local area, local businesses and local government will once again become the focus for most of our population.

    #490310
    DB346DB346
    Member

    DB346 wrote:

    The western world and way of life is based on the exploitation of the Earth’s ‘cheap’ resources.

    In coming years, I expect to see an initial gradual downward slide to a simpler way of life. Along this slide there will be big bumps over the years (like resource related wars such as Irag and Afghanistan and economic failures like the GFC and banking collapse). As some momentum is gained, more money and investment will be directed to alternatives such as hydrogen, solar, algal fuels, geo thermal etc.

    Hi Db, apart from the simpler life, would it be stretch to say that the rest is already happening? Not a stretch at all. I certainly believe we are already on the slide so to speak.

    DB346 wrote:

    This is where I very much hope I am wrong as the ‘future nightmare’ takes hold.At some point in time, Govts will not be able to ‘sell’ excuses and serious questions will get asked. Resource depletion, overpopulation and peak oil will become common in mainstream.

    Australia is a little behind the times in this, if you read the BBC England discusses such things very openly. Most of Europe does

    DB346 wrote:

    As people are educated and see the economic and government systems failing all around them, they will realise how ill prepared we are and how inadequate the alternatives are in comparison to oil.

    Govts around the world will start to collapse, then the gradual downward slide will gain much speed and there will be some big world changes as economies collapse and anarchy takes hold. I expect those who live a simpler way of life will be better off. Those countires that will most likely become targets will be those countries that have resources.

    Again do you think it would be too much of a stretch to say this is already occuring? America cant print enough money to hide their continued slide, Ivory Coast, Eygpt have toppled and most Latin America has either new or soon to be disposed governments. I agree a simpler way of life will help to survive, can I ask what you mean by targets?Some of this is occurring, but most is still the remanance of the 2008 GFC

    By targets, I am talking on a local, national and international scale. The haves and the have nots. If every man and there dog know about your fruit and veg garden and your chooks and your ability to survive, when there children are starving, will they take what you have? Same with countries. This is already happening. There is a reason why countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and closer to home, Timor are interfered with or invaded. That reason is simple, oil, gas and resources.

    #490311

    This is interesting. People are reading bewteen the lines in a reportby Shell:Shell oil article and link to original report.

    #490312
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Sorry I didnt come back to reply I havent been able to get on.

    I will need to reread to reply to all again but two things stood out then, re: security, instead of doing personal security you could try doing what we have and set up a solar perimetre system that hmmm would “take care of” anything coming past where you want. (I worked security and I dont think anyone really wants to try and tackle hungry humans by hand)

    and Db: By targets, I am talking on a local, national and international scale. The haves and the have nots. If every man and there dog know about your fruit and veg garden and your chooks and your ability to survive, when there children are starving, will they take what you have? Same with countries. This is already happening. There is a reason why countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and closer to home, Timor are interfered with or invaded. That reason is simple, oil, gas and resources.

    I understand what you mean now and yes agree whole heartedly, hence moving to where we are now, I would not want to be in suburbia.

    #490313
    BootstrapperBootstrapper
    Member

    I think Dmitry Orlov’s scenario is playing out.

    Financial Collapse: Already underway in the U.S. and Europe. Since these are the financial ‘engine rooms’ of the world, I’m expecting knock-on effects here. Most likely a deflationary recession. The financial sector of the global economy is the most removed from reality and therefore the most prone to reality biting it on the ar5e.

    Commercial Collapse: Commenced in the U.S but nowhere else, yet. A deflationary recession in Oz will curtail commercial activity. I’m planning that I’ll be unemployed at some point and will need an alternative source of income and a low-cost lifestyle. If the U.S. economy collapses, China will lose her largest market. The Chinese middle class isn’t yet large (or wealthy) enough, to absorb their industrial output, so their economy will take a body-blow as well. This will translate into drastically curtailed volumes / prices for Australia’s mineral exports.

    Political Collapse: Given the social and economic conditions currently obtaining in the U.S. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it disintegrate into a banana-republic, or several banana-republics. Jim Kunstler describes how this might happen in The Long Emergency. The Chinese Communist Party rules on the promise that it will deliver economic results in exchange for complete political control. A U.S. collapse will make it impossible for them to keep this bargain. The Chinese people have tasted the fruits of economic success and won’t be happy to have them snatched away at the penultimate moment. Big chance of another revolution. In Oz, grubbyments may come and go but the institutions are likely to remain. At least until they become anachronisms.

    Social Collapse: This is the realm of the American Survivalists. It could possibly happen in specificic locations and circumstances but grubbyment and the institutions that back it have enormous resilience (or inertia) so this effect may be confined to the Third World. Unlikely in Oz.

    Cultural Collapse: If this happens at all, it will be in the most impoverished, backward places. Highly unlikely in Oz.

    #490314
    RobyneRobyne
    Member

    We do have all the formulas for fuel making from veggie oil and like but you still need some petroluem products to get by.

    Son had the sense to go on and do his term learning about trucks and boat engines at least he listened to me when he had done his apprentship, Plus living and working over the west taught him more of his trade.

    Hubby has applied ofr a pension since pulling his shoulder out he has come to realize that at 60 his body is telling him something so he will be selling the truck and business.

    Eldest son is ready to move on he is getting fed up working for Woolies they aren’t what comes across on TV they are very nasty to their staff. He is just waiting for the right time which will be soon.

    We grow as much as we can in a rental home I don’t have fruit trees but buy as much organic fruit for Bubs as I can or if I can get it for free I do.

    I have reread Linda Cockburns book and wrote down all she ran out of as she eats very simply. I have also gone through John Seymours book on old tools and have photo copied the pictures so when I see the tools I will get them. Sons friend has a few in his shed in the house he just bought so when I can I will go up with son and see what he doesn’t want and we can use. After seeing a tiller in our local lawnmower place for $999 Mine is wrapped up.

    If anyone with a diesil car if your neighbours are gettign rid of their oil fires you can mix it with you diesil it works well but don’t put more then a 1/4 of a tank in at a time or it will stop the car. We were given over 300 liters that hubby mixed through the truck and it ran fine.

    I am wondering what will happen with friends of ours they use a tank and a half a week in their 4 wheeled drive just running around. They will go all the way to the other side of Adelaide just to have coffee with their son. When I say why don’t you go to the markets don’t have time. When we go down to Adelaide we make a day of it and do shopping at the markets, campbells stores,etc as well as calling in to see son.

    #490315
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    The series ‘Crash Course’, by Dr. Chris Martenson, http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse, should give most of us pause for thought.

    My perception is that wealth is a function of available surplus energy and economic growth is a function of population growth, which is also a function of available surplus energy.

    Our Western civilisation is utterly dependent upon the availability of cheap energy from fossil fuels, including nuclear fuels, all of which are finite resources. One of the ways we use these fuels is to provide habitats and environments for increasing populations.

    The whole concept of sovereign debt is based on the assumption that there will be more people paying taxes in the future, so government income will grow to match growing government repayment obligations. The whole concept of one taking out a 30 year mortgage to buy a home is based on the assumption that one’s income will grow over time, making the repayments progressively easier to meet as the years go by.

    What will cause economic and social collapse is our level of debt at a time when the energy fuelling economic growth is becoming increasingly expensive.

    We can see how quickly this will impact us by considering what happened to Lehman Brothers in the USA. They slowly built up a financial house of cards, but the collapse was almost instantaneous once the foundations failed. One day they were in business and the next day they were not. One day the employees had a job and the next day they were out on the street.

    A slower, but inexorable, problem is now reaching a head, with the Baby Boomers reaching retirement age. The weight of government debt is going to fall on a smaller pool of taxpayers and economic growth is supposedly going to be generated by a smaller pool of workers.

    Taking all this into account, I suggest we will have three phases of collapse, or adjustment if you prefer:

    1. The current pattern of escalating debt will continue as long as the financial markets can manage to mask the effects of ageing populations and growing energy costs.

    2. A relatively sudden financial collapse, which will see local, state and national governments unable to pay their workers, so many services we take for granted will evaporate.

    3. The eventual stabilisation of society at a level of technology supported by the available energy sources.

    It is my phase two which worries most of us. Naturally, populations must shrink to adapt to lower energy budgets and the ways in which they shrink could be quite violent. I cannot see urban humanity having much of a chance, what with mass unemployment and power vacuums caused by bankrupt authorities. Police will be unemployed, for instance, leading to the rise of local vigilantes trying to secure the remaining food, water, transport, medicine and so forth. I expect phase two to be bloody.

    From an historical viewpoint, though, I am interested in phase three. What will society look like when all the dust has settled?

    One factor which we must assume will still be in play is our ability to generate electricity. This was unknown in earlier societies and will provide opportunities for high speed communication by telephone, radio and even television. Whether these will be possible will depend upon the number of people remaining who have the necessary skills to build and maintain the networks, but I am inclined to think we will still have these capabilities. This means that some kind of central government will still be possible, as long as we have the communal will to let it happen.

    The key question is whether we will have access to affordable mining and engineering industries, capable of producing such basic necessities as copper wire for communications, steel for steam-driven railways and shipping, and the list goes on.

    So, in summary, I expect we will have a phoney ‘business as usual’ period until the energy crisis bites, followed by falling off a cliff when vast wealth will be destroyed, followed by a much smaller population living with older technology. I do not expect the human race to give up its greed for ever more of everything, so there will undoubtedly be another similar crisis at some point in our more distant future.

    I have faith in humanity’s inability to learn from history. 🙁

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