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Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Viewing 15 posts - 196 through 210 (of 216 total)
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  • #490481
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member
    #490482
    PinetreePinetree
    Member

    Just a quick clarification,

    I am not supporting any particular views on climate change. It is real but I believe that we are not capable/willing to do any thing about it within the window available. The majority of people are not willing/able to change their lives so as to have limited impact on the planet let alone turn back the clock even a little. So we need to deal with what we have, even though we don’t like or agree with how we got here.

    The cheep oil issue will bite us before we could do anything about the climate even if we were willing. It may even affect some of the pressures on the climate, but once again here my crystal ball gets a bit cloudy.

    I am not saying put your head in the sand, rather change what you can, make good decisions for you and yours and be prepared.

    cheers

    Pinetree

    #490483
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    Pinetree post=360401 wrote: Just a quick clarification,

    I am not supporting any particular views on climate change. It is real but I believe that we are not capable/willing to do any thing about it within the window available. The majority of people are not willing/able to change their lives so as to have limited impact on the planet let alone turn back the clock even a little. So we need to deal with what we have, even though we don’t like or agree with how we got here.

    The cheep oil issue will bite us before we could do anything about the climate even if we were willing. It may even affect some of the pressures on the climate, but once again here my crystal ball gets a bit cloudy.

    I am not saying put your head in the sand, rather change what you can, make good decisions for you and yours and be prepared.

    cheers

    Pinetree

    I think I agree pretty much with what you say. We have done about as much as we can at this present stage, we do need transport at present so we do run a car, but hopefully our forest will offset the carbons we generate plus a bit more.

    Regards, Keith.

    #490484
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    Problem wont be off setting the carbon it will be affording the oil(fuel).

    Peak oil may save the planet, as oil becomes to expensive to extract profitably and oil starved economies collapse making paying a higher price impossible.

    Man’s greed and the incessant hunger of the perpetual growth capitalist system, will ensure we will be watering down environmental laws and burning whatever fossils we can, to try and keep the pantomime going.

    #490485
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    Lets not confuse Peak Oil with no Oil, there is plenty of Oil, its “cheap” oil that there isnt enough of.

    Ever stopped to think why they are now trying to squeeze oil from stone

    Clue; its because the easy, cheap, stuff is finished and they need more and are getting desperate.

    but it

    Always return to this

    EROEI

    Energy returned on energy invested

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_Returned_on_Energy_Invested_-_USA.svg

    Regular OIL is a bit under 40

    Thats one barrel of oil needed to produce 40 barrels of oil

    (it used to be 1 to 100 when oil was easy and near the surface Jed Clampett style)

    Now its deep water, tar sands,shale oil and oil shale it costs way more to extract and requires more energy(oil) to do it.

    Shale oil is about 5 that’s 1 barrel of oil used to extract 5 barrels of oil

    So oil is getting 800% dearer to extract out of shale than out of Saudi Arabia.

    It might be able to be absorbed when its a small percentage of over all production but for how long??

    There arent enough Saudi Arabia’s but there are plenty of Chinese and Indians who are buying new cars

    You do the maths.

    …………………………………………..

    Quite a good article in Guardian about Peak Oil and its connections with all the global unrest.

    The global economies collapsed when oil hit $140 a barrel and still cant recover at $100 a barrel any sign of recovery is going to spike the price and create another collapse….rinse and repeat

    Oil companies are spending more to find it and are finding less, as people in third world countries want to drive more.

    Global riot epidemic due to demise of cheap fossil fuels

    From South America to South Asia, a new age of unrest is in full swing as industrial civilisation transitions to post-carbon reality

    The hope was that ongoing economic recovery would return to pre-crash levels of growth, alleviating the grievances fueling the fires of civil unrest, stoked by years of recession.

    But this hasn’t happened. And it won’t.

    Ukraine is a net energy importer, having peaked in oil and gas production way back in 1976.

    Despite excitement about domestic shale potential, Ukraine’s oil production has declined by over 60% over the last twenty years

    Currently, about 80% of Ukraine’s oil, and 80% of its gas, is imported from Russia. The rocketing energy prices underpin the inflation that is driving excruciating poverty rates for average Ukranians, exacerbating social, ethnic, political and class divisions.

    Same thing in Egypt,Tunisia, Venezuela, Thailand……….

    All you hear about everywhere is cost of living pressures, even in Australia.

    Thats how it starts, but we are fair bit richer than most so it will take a bit longer, but the collapse will be greater, because we got more to lose and idiots in control who dont realise there is a problem.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/feb/28/global-riots-protests-end-cheap-fossil-fuels-ukraine-venezuela

    #490486
    threedogsthreedogs
    Member

    Very well summed up above.

    For more on the fracking illusion house of cards see:

    http://www.resilience.org

    For more on post carbon scenarios and other pertinent issues:

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/

    http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com.au/

    All this was brought home recently when a fracking drilling rig turned up 50km away and have started drilling in the middle of some of our prime agricultural land over our artesian water supply and in the midst of one of the world renowned Coonawarra vineyard region. Says it all. We are literally desperately scraping the bottom of the barrel to keep up the BAU charade for as long as possible because our dear leaders have NO OTHER PLAN.

    #490487
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    Heres an article from Bloomberg Business Week no dark green hippys theyre just conservative business men.

    Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs

    The path toward U.S. energy independence, made possible by a boom in shale oil, will be much harder than it seems.

    Just a few of the roadblocks: Independent producers (SN:US) will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back.

    Shale output drops faster than production from conventional methods.

    It will take 2,500 new wells a year just to sustain output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota’s Bakken shale, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

    Iraq could do the same with 60.

    “We are beginning to live in a different world where getting more oil takes more energy, more effort and will be more expensive,” said Tad Patzek, chairman of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.

    Even with crude prices above $100 a barrel, U.S. independent producers will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back from selling oil and gas and will carry debt that is twice as much as annual earnings, said Ryan Oatman, an energy analyst with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc., an investment bank in Houston.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-26/dream-of-u-dot-s-dot-energy-independence-slams-against-costs-of-shale

    I wouldnt hold my breath waiting for the US to be the next Saudi

    I wouldnt pay too much attention to Joe Hockey and The G20 tell us we need more growth to stimulate the global economy either.

    When Tony Abbott says his government wont build rail, but will build the roads of the 21st Century you know they have absolutely no idea.

    #490488
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    In the Age this morning in the financial section

    They are suggesting to futures traders now is the time to get on oil prices going back towards $140 a barrel.

    The oil market seems set for some action, according to this week’s chart, produced by Mark Umansky, a certified financial technician and a councillor with the Australian Technical Analysts Association.

    Oil, like many markets, reached an all-time high of $US140 ($155) a barrel just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers unleashed its tsunami on the financial world. Then it fell for seven straight months to reach a low of $US41.68 in January 2009, when professional support reappeared in the market.

    That collapse was followed by a steady rise till April 2011 when resistance was encountered at about $US113.93 a barrel.

    Since then the price has been moving in a horizontal channel with upper resistance at $US113.93 and support at $US79.20.

    Should the price break the $US113.93 resistance level, technical analysis suggests it should re-test the all-time high at $US140.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/money/investing/support-for-oil-hints-at-crude-awakening-20140304-340y5.html#ixzz2v7pik7IB

    The world economies havent even recovered from the last time it $140 and even in recession the price continues to rise,….sounds like demand is greater than supply.

    #490489
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Snags post=360445 wrote: even in recession the price continues to rise,….sounds like demand is greater than supply.

    Indeed. We might see a series of economic mini-recoveries, putting pressure on oil supplies, causing oil price rises, causing further recessions, causing demand destruction, causing oil price retreats, allowing economic mini-recoveries …

    One of the three mythical Chinese curses was “May you live in interesting times”. I think we are approaching times more interesting than any seen in human history, since the discovery of fire and the invention of the wheel.

    What is happening in the Crimea right now, building upon existing unrest in the ‘stans and Muslim fundamentalist agitation in China is setting the stage for potential conflagration. If America and/or Europe intervene in Ukraine, or China attempts to obliterate religious dissenters and thereby upsets a nuclear-armed Muslim state, such actions might just light the touch paper of the gone-but-not-forgotten Cold War.

    As usual, the United Nations will fail to act, as the Security Council is emasculated by the vetoes wielded by the major powers.

    Perhaps an oil shock will be the least of our problems! Homo Stupidus stupidus.

    #490490
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    I think the oil shock is going to be the cause of all our problems

    German Military report on Peak Oil

    It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

    According to the German report, there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”

    Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum.

    As the transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could be subject to colossal tax hikes.

    “Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise” as a result, for example in food supplies.

    Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all industrial goods.

    Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain.

    “In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse.”

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

    #490491
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    Personally I do not see oil or the lack of as a problem. If we run out, it has only help the environment. It will demand huge changes in people’s lives for sure, but we are not talking Apocalypse. I think Global Warming however will cause a lot of problems, & in fact it already is. The majority of people it seems do not yet realise what the repercussions of not doing anything to halt Global Warming will be, but they will find out soon enough, especially here in Australia.

    Keith.

    #490492
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Le Loup post=360448 wrote: Personally I do not see oil or the lack of as a problem. If we run out, it has only help the environment.

    While that is true as far as it goes, Keith, the Apocalyptic vision sees oil prices soaring at the same time (relatively) as the effects of global warming start to bite. Heat waves during which the least wealthy are unable to afford to run air conditioners; fertiliser and transport costs putting the price of food out of reach for the less affluent, at the same time as food shortages begin, due to extended droughts in Australia, Europe and the Americas; pandemics starting at a time when rural populations cannot afford even public transport to medical help; the list is endless.

    It is ironic that the very substance underpinning our industrial civilisation – fossil carbon – is to be the cause of its collapse, directly through global warming and indirectly through its decreasing availability. I don’t have a clear picture of where we are headed, but I’m confident it will be a future with many less than 7, 8 or 9 billion of us on the planet.

    Even the tools we are using to communicate here, the internet and our computers, depend upon fossil carbon for their existence and a large market for their affordability. Imagine a world without Google – horrible!

    #490493
    Le LoupLe Loup
    Member

    Yes, I can see your point. Certainly farming & transport will have to revert to 18th/19th century methods. More people will have to start growing their own food, & some may have to consider joining some form of farming co-op. I do see the point of no transport for medical help, & obviously we will start to use more natural remedies as modern medications will cease to exist. But we can’t save everyone, it will be a time for looking after one’s self, family & friends. So long as we do not have to pay the rates (seeing as we get nothing for them anyway!), then I think our family will fair well enough.

    Keith.

    #490494
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    Le Loup post=360452 wrote: Certainly farming & transport will have to revert to 18th/19th century methods.

    Yes, I think our technology will revert to a level where much power comes from steam – steam locomotives on the railways, for instance, steam traction engines for agriculture and possibly steam for shipping. Of course, we will still have access to all the technological knowledge we have accumulated and there will be widespread use of electricity still, but it may well not be the dominating force it is now.

    Le Loup post=360452 wrote: So long as we do not have to pay the rates

    That raises a whole ‘nuther question: what will we do for money? If you imagine the scale of recession we will face, it becomes clear our financial institutions, which depend upon the myth of infinite growth, will collapse. No banks, no superannuation, no insurance, no usury. We will have to re-invent money in a way suited to the new society emerging from the wreckage. Imagine paying your taxes in the old way, as a tithe (one tenth) of your increase: one tenth of your wheat crop, one tenth of your fat lambs, one tenth of the fruit and veges you grow and so forth. Markets and bartering may replace cold hard cash, for most day-to-day transactions, but we will have to have some form of currency, in order to pay for public services and infrastructure, such as police and roads. It will be fascinating to see what will emerge as our future.

    All I am sure of is the future will not look like ‘today only more so’.

    #490495
    GirlFridayGirlFriday
    Member

    So for someone like me who is relatively young and not looking at retiring for another 20 years is putting extra money into my Superannuation a waste of time? The Financial Advisor advised against me investing it all in ethical/ eco responsible investment options (advice I went against) but with the potential collapse of the money system I do wonder.

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