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Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Scenarios – What do you think will happen?

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  • #254438
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Hello please bare with me while I make my first thread *ahem*

    I’m interested in finding out what believers of peak oil think will happen from now on in?

    OH and I spend quite alot of time going over details and over the years have developed a fairly advanced “Expectations” list, occassionally we have found the need to reassess our time lines but basically events continue to follow the patterns that we have predicted.

    I thought it would be interesting to find other peoples veiw points on the off chance we have overlooked anything, so if you are willing to guess please do.

    #490287
    NeataNeata
    Member

    hi. For me i hope we end up with something like cuba. It will take us twice as long as they did but we will get there in the end.

    As the oil decreases, our tech improves and our dependance will shift. But i also don’t see peak oil as our biggest problem in the next 50 years, over population is.

    #490288
    RobyneRobyne
    Member

    Its very hard to say what will happen it might go the way “World without Electricity” show said where people just get on with life or it could be like my hubby said people would go to war.

    I hope its the first as having parents who lived through WW2 and haveing friend who went to Asian wars I don’t want to see it happen in my life time. or see my sons go to war.

    Thinking of that my youngest sone would be totally out of work he’s a diseal machanic. No fuel no trucks no work. Eldest 2 would be on the line as both work for Woolies. Hubby also would be jobless as hes an owner driver.

    #490289
    DB346DB346
    Member

    The western world and way of life is based on the exploitation of the Earth’s ‘cheap’ resources.

    In coming years, I expect to see an initial gradual downward slide to a simpler way of life. Along this slide there will be big bumps over the years (like resource related wars such as Irag and Afghanistan and economic failures like the GFC and banking collapse). As some momentum is gained, more money and investment will be directed to alternatives such as hydrogen, solar, algal fuels, geo thermal etc.

    This is where I very much hope I am wrong as the ‘future nightmare’ takes hold.At some point in time, Govts will not be able to ‘sell’ excuses and serious questions will get asked. Resource depletion, overpopulation and peak oil will become common in mainstream. As people are educated and see the economic and government systems failing all around them, they will realise how ill prepared we are and how inadequate the alternatives are in comparison to oil.

    Govts around the world will start to collapse, then the gradual downward slide will gain much speed and there will be some big world changes as economies collapse and anarchy takes hold. I expect those who live a simpler way of life will be better off. Those countires that will most likely become targets will be those countries that have resources.

    #490290
    Hummer HumbugHummer
    Keymaster

    What do I think will happen ?

    Well it is simple really, as the oil becomes scarce.. only the fittest, strongest and most prepared and organised will survive, I guess ..

    Maintaining and extending my food forest helps keep me sane, whilst reading the ALS Peak Oil and Think Tank threads. One can feel like a loner with their ‘crazy thoughts and concerns’ .. that is until they log in here.

    Most folk IRL are emu’s.. they look at you like you are an alien should you bring up PO or the like.

    #490291
    FeyWindFeyWind
    Member

    In the short term, petrol and food prices will continue to rise. Recessions and depressions will become more common throughout the world – as will destabillisation of countries like Egypt etc. ‘Consumer confidence’ will continue to be low and retail will start to drop employees.

    In the medium term people who grow food without oil based products (including transported mulches, organic fertilizers etc) will have the benefit, they will not fall as much prey to the ever increasing prices. There will be more homeless and governments will not be able to pay as much unemployment benefits – think great depression. People will reuse things because they can’t afford to buy – not just ‘recycle’ thinking of the environment. More people will grow their own food – those that can. Smaller companies in the suburbs will do a bit better than city businesses as their employees don’t have to travel (and use oil) to get to work and therefore can cope with a lower wage.

    In the long term, we will probably go the way of cuba. Decentralised business and economics. Only then will technology start to catch up again and we will slowly cycle back to the consumeristic way of life which will cause problems with population and produce another downcycle.

    I’m not an expert or even a person who has looked at this a lot. It’s just my 2c

    #490292
    mistyhollowsmistyhollows
    Member

    Hmmm my 2 bits for what it’s worth…..

    I think FeyWind is thinking along similar lines to myself. That is, that I don’t think there will be anarchy or the like but that the cost of fuel, food and petroleum based products (look around your house and yard here :S ) will rise hugely and only the wealthy will be able to afford it, that is of course unless our Western society pulls it’s head out of it’s proverbial you know what, which is really not something I see happening any time soon :angry: . I do think you will see more recessions and dare I say depressions and large amounts of unemployed. People will struggle to afford the “basics” which I think we are starting to see now with the costs of food, electricity and housing skyrocketing amongst other things. I have little faith in the government to change. I remember in the lead up to the federal election in the debates between Gillard and Abbott that they were asked by an audience member about whether they believed in peak oil. From my sketchy memory here :laugh: Abbott didn’t and I don’t think Gillard was much different, just raved on about changing over power stations. That doesn’t give me a whole lot of confidence that our federal govs no matter who is in power will do a heck of a lot to secure food supplies within Australia and look at fuel alternatives if there is no $$ in it for their party and it ain’t cheap and easy.

    I do think it will be people who have started being proactive about this now by producing as much of their own food as they can etc etc that will have a chance at getting by. But I believe it will be a gradual change not an instantaneous “oh my goodness we have no petrol” kind of thing. I personally think we need to support Australian products much more so these businesses stay open for the longer term and buy less crap from China and the like. There will come a time when it simply costs too much to import “stuff”. People and probably some of us ALS’ers will just have to go without and have less crap in our homes and lives and learn to make do.

    So that’s my 2c too. Perhaps they’ll bring back the old steam trains and the horses and carriages :laugh: :laugh:

    #490293
    SonyaSonya
    Member

    Have you looked at David Holmgren’s Future Scenarios? I’ve seen him present this a few times now and talked to him about it and it seems probably all four will happen simultaneously – which is kind of what’s happening already. http://www.futurescenarios.org

    Also I think talking about ‘believing’ in climate change and peak oil is distracting us from moving forward.

    When its looked at as a belief system it becomes something that can easily be disregarded and the arguments can go round and round in circles and nothing changes. Science research is fundmentally flawed because it now has to be funded by large corporations – who have agendas. You can find an expert who will say and argue anything for you as long as you have enough $$ to pay them.

    I think its more about deducing that climate change and peak oil are very probable – given the number of people on the planet (too many) and the rate at which we use oil, it makes good sense to me that yes, we are having an impact on the earth that we do not fully understand and it makes sense to back off.

    As for peak oil, it also makes sense that it as a commodity is being sold and used far faster than is sustainable and that it is highly likely that oil providers are telling porkies about how much is there. Yes oil is renewable but over billions of years, not in human-timeframes.

    So, even though I’m not a scientist, I’ve deduced that these things are highly probable and above all else what if the sceptics are wrong and we continue to do nothing? I think both climate change and peak oil will become more evident far quicker than any one is expecting.

    Cheers,

    Sonya

    #490294

    In times of crisis, populations generally move to the cities for jobs. I imagine rural areas will become ghost towns for a while (at least until people realise the link between growing food and eating food).

    My tiny little car is going to be a good investment. I just hope it doesn’t get stolen. All those idiots in huge 4WDs will feel quite silly if PO hits.

    Societal collapses generally take little time at all so I imagine it will hit hard and fast if we are not ready (which we’re not).

    My biggest hope is that if it MUST hit, that it hits quickly. Interest rates are linked closely to oil prices so I’m guessing the bank will try to reclaim my home when I can no longer make repayments. If PO hits quickly, they might not be able to send someone to change the locks on the house…hells, they might stop existing if it hits fast enough and I will own my own home by default.

    I have my “shopping list” of things to buy (steal) on my final tank of gas as well as where to get them. Mostly hand tools and a beehive. I’ve been eyeing off various musuems in the area for old farming gear that is still in good condition (and fits my abilities to use it).

    A small chunk of my plan is based around the idea that people will head to the cities initially leaving land (and possibly even more useful equipment) in their wake. With more land, I could do better than merely survive.

    My next project is to figure out how to hook the solar panels (due March) directly to the house. In fact, I’m going to do that next. An electricity supply will be a valuable trading commodity.

    I’ve also taken note of where the local bunya pines are but this has more to do with eating yummy things today than eating yummy things in the future 😉

    #490295
    GrethGreth
    Member

    Robyne, if your son learns how to make and use biodiesel, he will not only survive, he will be a valuable resource! Get yourself a source of vegetable oil.

    Australia will be more comfortable than a lot of places, but we will get dragged into war situations, as they occur more frequently. More strength to small businesses and local business, as people will not be travelling so far or so often.

    Coles would love to have you shop online, just so they don’t have to bother providing salespeople to help you, but they can’t see past charging double for such a service, so it won’t become mainstream unless they get smart. Those with more money than brains will take it up, the rest will grow their own or buy local.

    I think there will be a change of mentality, where it is better to have a homeperson in the household producing food than to have all available adults in the workforce. This is also occurring as the baby boomers retire, and find they can do so much for themselves to extend a lower income. And have food which is cleanly grown, clothes that are well made and maintained, home repairs done properly and cheaply. Maybe a bit of ‘war mentality’ becoming mainstream, where wastefulness is frowned upon and ingenuity becomes fashionable instead of the current ‘ more bling is better’

    #490296
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    I think I will have to reply to the replies individually for I have a great many questions :silly: but from initial reading andre sounds closest to us. Yes we have seen Davids scenarios have also watch videos of him discussing the issue, I truly think there isnt a resource we havent looked at (including Caltex’s intranet :laugh: ) but there is always something we may have missed.

    I will give our thoughts but its hard to bring them all together in one place, much much easier to break into individual matters.

    Any thoughts on the psychology of the changes foreseen?

    #490297
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Neata post=304407 wrote: hi. For me i hope we end up with something like cuba. It will take us twice as long as they did but we will get there in the end.

    As the oil decreases, our tech improves and our dependance will shift. But i also don’t see peak oil as our biggest problem in the next 50 years, over population is.

    Hi Neata,

    What would you like from Cuba? I find them interesting in terms of being able to see a likely reponse to peak oil since they experienced their own version, I personally have doubts as to whether the western societies are capable of handling change of the scale required.

    I agree over population is the root cause of many issues but from our perspective we dont have 50 years, 5 years maybe and that is also why we dont think there is time for technology or dependance to catch up

    Thank you for replying

    #490298
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    Robyne post=304418 wrote: Its very hard to say what will happen it might go the way “World without Electricity” show said where people just get on with life or it could be like my hubby said people would go to war.

    I hope its the first as having parents who lived through WW2 and haveing friend who went to Asian wars I don’t want to see it happen in my life time. or see my sons go to war.

    Thinking of that my youngest sone would be totally out of work he’s a diseal machanic. No fuel no trucks no work. Eldest 2 would be on the line as both work for Woolies. Hubby also would be jobless as hes an owner driver.

    Hi Robyne,

    Could you look at your neighbours and imagine them living life without TV, lights, food, mobile phones, no work , plastic things, no shopping, no car, no public transport and ask “What would they do?”

    Honestly I cant see Australia intiating a full blown war and to be honest apart from a few border clashes worldwide I cant see anyone warring with other countries when things really start to hit, why? Because you need oil to make war and I imagine governments will be having far too much trouble at home (see Eygpt, Tunisia, Algeria etc etc)

    #490299

    Sorry but Andre would prefer it if my shortened name were AndreH. :unsure: He caught a lot of flack over one of my posts some time ago, I really can’t blame him.

    PS: Woohoo! I won!

    #490300
    GrumpyGertGrumpyGert
    Member

    DB346 post=304423 wrote: The western world and way of life is based on the exploitation of the Earth’s ‘cheap’ resources.

    In coming years, I expect to see an initial gradual downward slide to a simpler way of life. Along this slide there will be big bumps over the years (like resource related wars such as Irag and Afghanistan and economic failures like the GFC and banking collapse). As some momentum is gained, more money and investment will be directed to alternatives such as hydrogen, solar, algal fuels, geo thermal etc.

    Hi Db, apart from the simpler life, would it be stretch to say that the rest is already happening?

    DB346 post=304423 wrote: This is where I very much hope I am wrong as the ‘future nightmare’ takes hold.At some point in time, Govts will not be able to ‘sell’ excuses and serious questions will get asked. Resource depletion, overpopulation and peak oil will become common in mainstream.

    Australia is a little behind the times in this, if you read the BBC England discusses such things very openly. Most of Europe does

    DB346 post=304423 wrote: As people are educated and see the economic and government systems failing all around them, they will realise how ill prepared we are and how inadequate the alternatives are in comparison to oil.

    Govts around the world will start to collapse, then the gradual downward slide will gain much speed and there will be some big world changes as economies collapse and anarchy takes hold. I expect those who live a simpler way of life will be better off. Those countires that will most likely become targets will be those countries that have resources.

    Again do you think it would be too much of a stretch to say this is already occuring? America cant print enough money to hide their continued slide, Ivory Coast, Eygpt have toppled and most Latin America has either new or soon to be disposed governments. I agree a simpler way of life will help to survive, can I ask what you mean by targets?

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