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Peak Oil occurred in 2008 – A must read for people interested

Home Forums SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Peak Oil – where are we headed? Peak Oil occurred in 2008 – A must read for people interested

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  • #252093
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Scientifically proven and just awaiting peer review (happening now). Please have a read.:o

    The facts are now in.

    http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf

    I intend to hasten my preparations/planning and lifestyle changes based on this.

    What are other peoples thoughts? Have not seen any mention of this in the mainstream with the exception of a reference on the ABC site. Have I missed something

    #462888
    AndreAndre
    Keymaster

    And this too:

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2010/2886142.htm?site=northwestwa

    more links here:

    https://www.aussieslivingsimply.com.au/forum/viewthread.php?forum_id=57&thread_id=19489#273138

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/199400-governments-starting-to-worry-about-peak-oil

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2884013.htm

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/114417/Does-peak-oil-signal-the-end-

    eta:

    Nope. I don’t think you missed anything. It has been scarce on mainstream News. I believe a couple of times it was mentioned -sort of tongue-in-cheek-style on crap TV like Sunrise .. it came across as all Henny Penny. :tdown:

    They didn’t take it seriously at all :awch:

    As to my views.. I’ve mentioned on several posts about my belief it will be a bad time for us. No surprises there. I am attempting – though somewhat halfheartedly it seems sometimes – to become more involved with permaculture and transition town type organisations.

    The safety net will only be as good as the community we have around us. If it is a community that holds together, then we will ride the slide with only moderate discomfort and hardship; but if you find yourself in a community of non-believing/lethargic/flat-earthers .. then I suggest a move.

    :uhoh:

    #462889
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Very Interesting Read if you have some time from Energy Bulletin.

    Business leaders predict ‘global oil supply crunch and price spike’by Matthew Wild

    The Chief Executive Officer of insurance giants Lloyds is warning that the world is facing a “period of deep uncertainty” over the decline of fossil fuels – and may soon be coping with $200-a-barrel oil.

    It may be hard to believe now, writes Dr Richard Ward in his introduction to a “stark” report just published by Lloyds and an influential UK think tank, but that’s because “the bad times have not yet hit.” He warns business managers to be ready for “dramatic changes” as oil, gas and coal supplies will soon be “less reliable and more expensive.” The world “has entered a period of deep uncertainty in how we will source energy for power, heat and mobility, and how much we will pay for it,” he states.

    And that’s just CEO Ward’s introduction. The rest of the report does not disappoint.

    Titled Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Business, it urges business leaders to adopt a “transition to a low carbon economy.” Those that do will thrive; the report talks of opportunities for forward-thinking managers that “prepare for and take advantage of the new energy reality.” However, “failure to do so could be catastrophic.”

    Lloyds, which provides business services in more than 200 countries and territories (reporting profits of 3.9 billion UK pounds in 2009) produced this report with Chatham House, a London, England “world-leading source of independent analysis, informed debate and influential ideas.” Formerly know as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House is independent, but works closely with the British Parliament. For instance, the organization facilitated the March 2010 meeting between British energy ministers and peak oil proponents.

    It’s a report for business leaders, so emotive writing is perhaps not to be expected; instead, we get the occasional “new energy paradigm”. The term peak oil is largely avoided in favour of global oil supply crunch – which is emerging as a kind of Brit euphemism of choice for those wanting to attract the business community.

    Sustainable Energy Security does not get hung up on predicting a date for this decline in oil production, but states that it is an urgent issue. It quotes from a 2009 study from the UK Energy Research Centre suggesting “that a peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely, and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020,” and also that “some suggest that this ‘peak’ has already occurred, while others maintain it is either impossible to predict or shows no sign of appearing.”

    Having said that, it doesn’t pull any punches. For instance:

    MARKET DYNAMICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MEAN BUSINESS CAN NO LONGER RELY ON LOW COST TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES

    Modern society has been built on the back of access to relatively cheap, combustible, carbon-based energy sources. Three factors render that model outdated: surging energy consumption in emerging economies, multiple constraints on conventional fuel production and international recognition that continuing to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will cause climate chaos.

    WE ARE HEADING TOWARDS A GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY CRUNCH AND PRICE SPIKE

    Energy markets will continue to be volatile as traditional mechanisms for balancing supply and price lose their power. International oil prices are likely to rise in the short to mid-term due to the costs of producing additional barrels from difficult environments, such as deep offshore fields and tar sands. An oil supply crunch in the medium term is likely to be due to a combination of insufficient investment in upstream oil and efficiency over the last two decades and rebounding demand following the global recession. This would create a price spike prompting drastic national measures to cut oil dependency.

    The report looks at declining “extractive energy sources” – hydrocarbons and nuclear – along with climate change, and the likelihood of government carbon regulation. It repeats that fossil fuel energy is going to get more expensive, due to both diminishing supply and carbon taxation, so that “the most cost-effective mitigation strategy is to reduce fossil fuel energy consumption.” It argues for efficiency and for renewable energy, and against just-in-time manufacturing models.

    While written in a positive, pro-business frame of mind, Sustainable Energy Security makes it clear that we are fast approaching a transition away from “extractive” energy sources that currently make up “90 per cent of the world’s traded energy” and into uncharged territory:

    These changes will naturally impact jobs, profits, national economies and the

    environment, just as the dramatic increase in coal use during the industrial

    revolution and the onset of the ‘oil age’ did in the first part of the 20th

    century. This means that there will be push and pull factors from stakeholders.

    This will form the political context for many business transactions and

    operations over the next 30 years.

    This is a well-researched document. It’s all here: the growing demand for energy within the Middle East, China and India; the scramble for oil in Africa and Central Asia; the growing importance of Russia as a source of oil and natural gas (“EU depends on Russia for 33% of its imported oil and 42% of its gas”); the rise of coal and natural gas as transition fuels, and question over their longterm availability; the Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent oil slick, and the inherent risks of deepwater operations; the lack of investment in the oil industry; and the latest on unconventional sources of hydrocarbon. As it states on shale gas:

    But the full impact is highly uncertain. Production from shale gas wells seems

    to peak much faster than conventional gas, and data is limited. Assessments

    of the Barnett wells in the US using horizontal drilling showed that most of

    the recoverable gas is extracted in the first few years.

    Is the US experience set to become a global phenomenon? Some suggest that resources in OECD Europe are large enough to displace 40 years of imports of gas at the current level, assuming recovery rates in line with those in North America. Exploration is already under way in Europe (including in France, Germany, Poland

    and the UK) to assess this potential.

    The document even enters into some speculation over oil prices, quoting a range of views. The highest, and most immediate, oil price is suggested by Chatham House’s own professor Paul Stevens: “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013…given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible”

    This is highlighted in the document and referred to in Dr Richard Ward’s introduction. It subsequently states that while there is a “huge variety of opinion on how high the oil price will rise, and when it will reach these figures, most commentators agree that the trajectory is upwards.”

    An interesting aside on the importance of fuel to the modern economy comes from a brief flashback to a September 2000 fuel tax protest in Britain, during which an informal coalition of truckers and farmers blockaded oil depots around the country, stopping deliveries to gas stations. Sustainable Energy Security states:

    As supermarkets tend to keep only two–three days worth of perishables on their

    shelves, a transportation fuel disruption lasting just a few days would affect

    availability. This happened during September 2000 when protests over fuel price

    rises prevented the distribution of fuel from depots to the rest of the country.

    Supermarkets were obliged to put the government’s priority user scheme in place

    at its petrol stations. They also faced ‘panic-buying’ which in some cases ran

    down stocks before replacements arrived. Several stores decided to implement

    rationing of basic goods like bread and milk. Companies that prepare and deliver

    fresh goods to retailers daily were particularly vulnerable. UK food group Geest

    announced that its deliveries would be unlikely to reach the supermarkets if

    fuel supplies were not restored in a matter of days.48 The chief executive of

    Sainsbury’s wrote to the Prime Minister to warn that the petrol crisis was

    threatening Britain’s food stocks and that stores were likely to be out of food

    in “days rather than weeks”. Fuel disruptions in other parts of the world also

    affects transportation of goods to markets, and higher energy prices could push

    up the price of basic food commodities, such as rice, soya and wheat – as they

    did in 2008.

    (I’ll declare an interest: working as a journalist in Derby, England, at the time, I was given a pass to enable me to buy fuel – most cars were off the road after only a couple of days. I guess the government wanted to keep the presses running; if we’d stopped printing, people would have thought civilisation was ending. . . And yes, there was panic buying; I seem to remember bread ran out first, then milk.)

    Time and space considerations prevent me from looking at the climate change sections in Sustainable Energy Security, but needless to say, they are equally well put together.

    I cannot recommend this report highly enough. It’s a complete introduction to the whole peak debate. Sustainable Energy Security is an essential, must-read document. In the words of Rob Hopkins of Transition Culture it’s “the Hirsch Report for British business… and provides the perfect case for the work that Transition Training and Consulting are now doing with businesses.” (Now that’s damning it with faint praise, considering the Hirsch report is one of the most neglected government documents about a contemporary issue of all time.)

    I’ll leave you with just two of the document’s conclusions:

    Traditional fossil fuel resources face serious supply constraints and an oil

    supply crunch is likely in the short-to-medium term with profound consequences

    for the way in which business functions today. Businesses would benefit from

    taking note of the impacts of the oil price spikes and shocks in 2008 and

    implementing the appropriate mitigation actions. A scenario planning approach

    may also help assess potential future outcomes and help inform strategic

    business decisions.

    Energy infrastructure will be increasingly vulnerable to unanticipated severe weather events caused by changing climate patterns leading to a greater frequency of brownouts and supply disruptions for business. This throws out a critical challenge to energy providers, investors and planners in terms of choosing the location of new infrastructure and fortifying existing plants and networks. Those businesses for which uninterrupted access to energy is of fundamental importance should actively consider investing in alternative energy supply systems.

    #462890
    lorisloris
    Member

    Andre I admire you putting your faith in community. We’ve been involved with everything we could, permaculture, relocalization, transition town and we found like all groups they subcumbed to the cult of personality. Everyone had their own agenda (like to dominate others) and lots of people didn’t share our interpretations or opinions about what we were looking for within the group.

    We have now come to the conclusion that we should lead by doing – not by attending meetings and we keep building on our links with good people that we know within the community while avoiding group activities where personality and politics play a part.

    But then we are subscribing to the future view of a death of 1000 cuts, not the sudden cataclysm where things will gradually become challenging and still leave room for people to change.

    I have looked at transition town literature and read several very good studies of what they have achieved in Britian with this but it appears to me that this movement seems to need a certain mass of people within a certain geographical area like a village, town or city. When you have that critical mass, these strategies can catch on virally and cause people to come together. Our area is more rural and there is so much distance that coming together in the way they describe just sort of fell flat here.

    I guess what I’m saying is take on all the information that is available but also prepare yourself personally as well as in a group for challenging moments. Taking in lessons of the kind learnt with Katrina, we have always encouraged local people to visit us, see the property and talk about these issues but on our terms as we do not wish to support refugees in an extreme event. That said, when there is an extreme even (generally floods in our area) we do phone to check on our contacts and they know we are in a flood free zone.

    #462891
    roddam63roddam63
    Member

    The one thing I truly can’t get my head around when it comes to peak oil is: how can the government(s) not know about it? Because, surely, if they did, they’d be preparing… wouldn’t they?

    Is this a repeat of Nero?

    I’m usually accused of being cynical not naive… so I just don’t get it!

    Meanwhile, I will continue to prepare as best I can and perhaps with this news, I’ll step it up a notch where and when I can.

    Loris, I’ve never been the ‘group joining’ type of personality, plus a corporate career has shown me just how much is achieved in meetings… Suffice it to say, I wont be joining any of these ‘transition’ organisations in the foreseeable future! BTW – Love that cat!

    Thanks for the links guys.

    Diane

    #462892
    roadwarriorroadwarrior
    Member

    Haven’t you lot heard yet it’s all nonsense. We’ll be saved by hydrogen cars, ethanol, corn syrup, ultra-deep field oil wells, and the gravitational pull from mars.

    Go back to sleep. There’s absolutely nothing to worry about :zzzzzzzzzzz

    #462893
    Hummer HumbugHummer
    Keymaster

    You are so full of sh!t RW .. sarcasm wit :tdown:

    #462894
    roddam63roddam63
    Member

    Ha! And they say sarcasm is the lowest form of wit… It’s definitely the most effective!!!

    If I wanted to be ‘saved’ I’d join a cult.

    I consider any preps to be under the same heading as my house or car insurance but, lots of people don’t have those either.

    #462895
    porgeyporgey
    Member

    I am so glad Peak Oil has come and gone.

    Pity it wasn’t in the 1970s so we would have already found better, sorry developed, better ways of powering the joint like solar for instance. President Carters scientific renewable energy committee calculated then that solar power could supply all the electricity needs of the USA in a 100 by 100 mile solar-voltaic facility. Whittingham in the 70s, followed by Pons & Fleischmann in the early eighties made huge, but unexpected, advances in lithium batteries when experimenting with cold fusion.

    Like then, we have now the the ability to supply energy from means other than oil or a lot of fossil fuels. (Post) Peak oil is not the scary thing its the political apathy & wickedly greedy & controlling business’ who supress alternative developments. its much harder to tax & mine the sun like we do with oil, coal, gas, uranium for example so the political-economic model that the world is currently run by doesn’t like cheaper & cleaner forms of energy.

    #462896
    pxdavepxdave
    Member

    roddam63 wrote:

    The one thing I truly can’t get my head around when it comes to peak oil is: how can the government(s) not know about it? Because, surely, if they did, they’d be preparing… wouldn’t they?

    Can you imagine the economic and civil order impact of a government acknowledging this issue

    far easier to very quietly step by step introduce anti-terrorist/criminal association laws, censorship and monitoring, emergency warning systems and pandemic plans

    it is all happening, just with different justifications

    #462897
    jennifer gjennifer g
    Member

    You are so full of sh!t

    oh well, good fertiliser anyhow…. 😆

    #462898
    roadwarriorroadwarrior
    Member

    roddam63 wrote:

    Ha! And they say sarcasm is the lowest form of wit… It’s definitely the most effective!!!

    Indeed. I seem to have gotten a bite.

    Whenever I see a post that I don’t agree with, I attempt to argue against it using science, logic, reason, or at least proven and/or reliable data from an external source.

    If that has offended some people then that’s just too bad.

    If you post something on a public forum you have to expect a critique in return, and I can accept that sometimes I have to take it as well as dishing it out.

    What I won’t do though is stooping so low as to attack someone directly, regardless of what I think about what they have written. We may be distant, we may be neighbours, anonymous or old friends. I treat everyone the same regardless of whether they are behind a keyboard or talking to me face-to-face. Those of you on here who already know me wouldn’t need to be told this.

    And, if you are one of those people, you would also know that the last thing I am is full of sh!t.

    rw

    #462899
    jennifer gjennifer g
    Member

    oh get over it, there’s more important people, um things to do.

    #462900
    roddam63roddam63
    Member

    Well said, RW!

    I had a few other comments, but I’ve ‘backspaced’ them. The “better part of valour…” and all that.

    I think I’ll go split some more wood… that always helps…

    #462901
    Hummer HumbugHummer
    Keymaster

    If you post something on a public forum you have to expect a critique in return, and I can accept that sometimes I have to take it as well as dishing it out.

    Yes.

    What I won’t do though is stooping so low as to attack someone directly, regardless of what I think about what they have written. We may be distant, we may be neighbours, anonymous or old friends. I treat everyone the same regardless of whether they are behind a keyboard or talking to me face-to-face. Those of you on here who already know me wouldn’t need to be told this.

    Today I just felt like telling you how I felt RW..

    I for one are slowly but surely getting sick & tired of your ‘it’s my way or the highway’ kinda attitude.

    There are more ways to skin a cat!

    Oh & … if I were in the same vicinity as you I would say it to your face as well.

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