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Aussies Living Simply

Peak Oil Nonsense.

Viewing 13 posts - 346 through 358 (of 358 total)
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  • #462650
    BootstrapperBootstrapper
    Member

    Six out of every seven people now living, owe their existence to Oil. Without ‘Industrial’ agriculture, the planet can’t support more than a billion people. It may be possible to power the ploughs and harvesters with ‘alternative’ energy but no amount of Hydrogen or electricity can replace the fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides and fungicides needed to make modern varieties of food crops grow and produce their maximum yields. Absent these Petroleum-derived products, yields from existing farmlands will drop by 80% – 90%.

    Thanks to the damage done by Industrial ‘inputs’, it could take up to 20 years to rebuild soil fertility using ‘organic’ methods. In the meantime, yields at 10% – 20% of current volumes will have to be accepted. Even when this has been accomplished, ‘heritage’ varieties of crop plants would still only yield 50% (at best) of current volumes. Regrettably, the food crisis is happening NOW.

    Industrial agriculture is also uniquely dependent on the financial sector of the economy; Farmers must borrow to purchase seed, fertiliser, pesticides, herbicides and fungicides as well as fuel and electricity for irrigation. This doesn’t account for on-going payments for machinery. We’ve had one global financial crisis already and another is a certainty. Even if the physical inputs are available, lack of finance may prevent any production.

    Faced with an emergency like this, grubbyments may have no other option than to reserve petroleum products for acriculture and food distribution and/or ‘nationalise’ it. The fate of the Soviet Union serves as an object lesson, how well that strategy will work. Starved of fuels, our transportation-addicted economy can’t and won’t function – economic collapse.

    In such an impoverished (economic) environment, high-tech ‘alternatives’ become moot. Even if they work, no one will be able to afford them.

    One signifigant impact of Peak Oil, will be a global famine.

    #462651
    DB346DB346
    Member

    Valid points Bootstrapper.

    I have no doubt we will depress into another GFC like event within 12-24 months. I expect to see slight improvement to the Global economy before the next ‘bubble’ bursts.

    Fuel continues to rise on an almost weekly basis, yet the direct cost of fuel is rarely (if at all mentioned).

    There is all the this talk currently in the media concerning a ‘carbon tax’ and the flow on effect to the cost of living, yet there is no talk of the accross the board (with the exception of milk!) price increases in almost all goods and services that have occurred in the last 9 months, not to mention the last 12 weeks. Did I mention this coincides with an average fuel cost increase of 15-30%. Hang on a sec! Did somebody mention cause and effect. People will associate cost of living increases with a ‘carbon tax’, yet they fail to see the one right under their noses caused by fuel.

    Insert head back in sand here……

    #462652
    SurvegalistSurvegalist
    Member

    $2.18 per ltr in Karmo NZ this morning,guess we’ve got .73c to go before we can complain.And they are about .30c below parity with us,not to mention payrates are low as well.

    #462653
    BootstrapperBootstrapper
    Member

    Perhaps the proposed Carbon tax is nothing more than a smokescreen, to conceal the real cause of prices rising. 👿

    I think that the ‘root cause’ is our money system. Every debt-based currency in history has collapsed, often after hyperinflating. The U.S. Dollar and the Euro will suffer this fate within the next three years. Once created, wealth isn’t destroyed; It’s transferred. The so-called ‘Great’ Depression was great – for the wealthy elites who engineered it and had the cash to buy up valuable assets at pennies on the Dollar. We’re in the end-game prior to another such wealth-transfer event.

    All the spin about ‘alternative’ energy is likewise, a distraction. Designed to focus the population’s attention away from the real problems and workable solutions (particularly wealth-protection strategies), while the elites loot everything of real value before the system crashes.

    If you haven’t already, take time to read The Alpha Strategy, by John Pugsley to learn how the ‘system’ robs you and what you can do to protect your wealth. Then if you’re looking for a guideline on how an honest money system should work, you might find Bernard Lietaer’s essay informative. Particularly if you think you might want to set up a local money system.

    I subscribe to Stefan Molyneux’s idea that countries are giant farms and we’re the livestock!

    Stefan Molyneux’s idea

    The actions of the ruling elites and their factors (grubbyments) become logical and predictable when viewed from this perspective. The flock has grown too numerous for the pasture so the bulk of humanity – the middle class in particular – is being herded into the shearing shed, after which they’ll be turned back out into barren paddocks to starve.

    #462654

    found this on the nine msn news website today

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8232747/crystal-ball-sees-vic-food-shortage

    so i guess pollies n others r looking/paying attention , but just trying to work out what to do. ( at least some of them)

    #462655
    simonusshersimonussher
    Member

    I suspect there could be some very rough days ahead in light of these challenges. I also suspect the politicians will move far too slowly to avoid them.

    #462656
    roddam63roddam63
    Member

    A couple of weeks ago there was this article in The Age:

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/growers-warn-about-aust-food-security-20110317-1byin.html

    Growers warn about Aust food security

    By Lisa Martin

    A peak body for growers says Australia could face a future of sausage sizzles without salads, if it doesn’t ramp up efforts to protect fruit and vegetable production and establish a national food security body.

    The assessment of Australia’s horticulture industry has been delivered in a report by Queensland-based Growcom.

    Chief executive Alex Livingstone told reporters in Brisbane on Thursday there was a misconception that Australia’s food supply was secure because 60 per cent of its agricultural production was exported.

    “The devil is in the detail,” Mr Livingstone said.

    “Most of the exports are beef and grain. Australia is actually a net importer of horticulture produce and the trend is for that trade imbalance to rise.”

    He said the public was largely unaware that up to 34 per cent of fruit and 19 per cent of vegetables consumed in Australia were imported.

    Mr Livingston said fruit and vegetable imports could dry up as the world population rocketed to nine billion by 2050.

    “The (Australian horticulture) industry is not going to collapse tomorrow,” Mr Livingston said.

    “But the long term trend of doing nothing means the implications are severe.”

    The report said land availability was a major threat to horticulture in Australia.

    It said there were particular concerns over urban sprawl, coal seam gas mining and foreign governments buying up Australian farmland to secure their own food security.

    Mr Livingston said not enough was being done to protect prime agricultural land from mining interests.

    “The industries need to co-exist, but there is a difference between open cut … where land can be rehabilitated to a certain extent.”

    “Of more significant danger is coal seam gas extraction where the results are unknown … we do know it will affect the water tables under a lot of agricultural land (such as) the Great Artesian Basin.

    “Given the dangers associated and the lack of science around the impacts, we would say that should be put on hold.”

    The report said other factors affecting horticulture production included climate change, decline in farm profitability, decline in research and development, red tape and supply interruptions from natural disasters.

    The report’s major recommendation was for the federal government to set up a national food security agency.

    “The other thing this agency would need to do is to deal with the predatory end of the retail market. All the power in the supply chain resides at the retail end,” Mr Livingston said.

    The report presented two scenarios set in 2050, in the context of a population size double the current 22 million.

    The first – a do nothing approach – would result in a surplus of meat and grain but a tight supply of fruit and vegetables.

    In the second scenario – a coordinated food plan across all government levels, increased research and development focus and greater protection for water and farmland resources – agriculture productivity growth would exceed population growth.

    The report will be sent to the federal government for consideration.

    And not one mention of the increasing costs of farm inputs like diesel and fertilisers…

    #462657
    BootstrapperBootstrapper
    Member

    The first scenario looked at producers getting the highest return for food and the likelihood that it would be exported for top dollar rather than reserved for locals, leading to a deficit of fruits, nuts and vegetables.

    It’s nice to know post-collapse North Americans, and Europeans will still be buying Australian strawberries. [/sarcasm] In the grip of a global recession, who will we be exporting to? When transport costs become the most signifigant component in the price of produce, buyers will switch to locally produced goods or will stop buying those particular items altogether.

    In the second scenario – a coordinated food plan across all government levels, increased research and development focus and greater protection for water and farmland resources – agriculture productivity growth would exceed population growth.

    And in the alternate universe these report-writers live in, the Soviet Union, North Korea and all the other ‘centrally-planned’ economies are the breadbaskets of the world. [/sarcasm] What that’s code for, is promotion of big agri-business, ‘regulating’ small farms out of existence, price controls, rationing and shortages.

    …the third scenario looked at greater interaction between producers and consumers

    As in “farmers selling produce directly to consumers, via farmers’ markets or ‘farmgate’ sales?” Sounds like relocalisation and decentralisation to me. Not much chance this’ll fly, with Govcorp.

    #462658
    DanHowerDanHower
    Member

    Bootstrapper post=308789 wrote:

    I subscribe to Stefan Molyneux’s idea that countries are giant farms and we’re the livestock!

    Stefan Molyneux’s idea

    The actions of the ruling elites and their factors (grubbyments) become logical and predictable when viewed from this perspective. The flock has grown too numerous for the pasture so the bulk of humanity – the middle class in particular – is being herded into the shearing shed, after which they’ll be turned back out into barren paddocks to starve.

    Wow Paul, thanks very much for linking that video!

    #462659

    I just love the fact that they have Pink Floyd in thier video 🙂

    #462660
    Scrub PullerScrub Puller
    Member

    Yair…hello folks. I’m a newbie around here but I have been following oil production as a hobby for close on thirty years.

    You may be interested to know that world oil consumption has now exceeded one thousand barrels a second…that’s 158,000 litres a second for those who don’t think in barrels.

    To put that into perspective imagine four lanes of semi-trailed tanker trucks passing by at about eighty kilometers an hour for the next five years or so…and then they will have to speed it up a bit because by then there will be another 500,000,000 people in the world??????

    Peak oil isn’t nonsense. Petroleum fuel is the most energy dense,safe and convenient substance in the known universe. It’s depletion will be the greatest crisis the human race has ever faced.

    #462661
    roadwarriorroadwarrior
    Member

    Scrub, greetings and welcom to the forum. You will find there is a tight knot of users on ALS who not only understand the implications of PO, but are also preparing for it in their own way. You’ve missed a lot of good posts in the past, and while we’re not apt to repeating ourselves (unless we’re arguing about something), you may do well in going back through the main “Peak Oil – Where are we headed” category.

    My personal favourite is the Oil Shockwave Scenario starting on page 30, but there are many others with useful information and thoughts.

    Enjoy your time here. I hope the knowledge you gain bares fruit.

    rw

    #462662
    DanHowerDanHower
    Member

    Since you are talking about preparation, an interesting article:

    Peak Oil Preparation

    Rule No 1: Work your ass off 😉

Viewing 13 posts - 346 through 358 (of 358 total)
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