Aussies Living Simply

PEAK OIL

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  • #255756
    HTHT
    Member

    OMG

    I am in the middle of an Ethics lecture at University in WA and my Lecturer has just said that we are at Peak Oil.I have never heard another person talk about it in the normal world.Its amazing,how many people don’t know about it.I am close to a person who is in a high position at an oil company and he doesn’t know about it,its not that he isn’t supposed to talk about it,he just doesn’t get it at all.

    HT

    #508546
    sue esue e
    Member

    I find that to HT. Iv’e stopped talking about it cos people give me a questioning look. :huh: and then when I try to give them a bit of a run down it changes to a smirk :whistle: ( like here we go again- Sue’s on the soapbox again). But when you think of it, how much of it do you hear in the media? People are more intersted in the Biggest Loser , Australian Idol or Masterchef.

    We need a smirk emoticon -though on 2nd thought I wouldn’t think there would be much use for it here- not much smirking goes on eh!

    #508547
    karyn26karyn26
    Member

    I sure wouldnt know about Peak Oil if I wasnt reading about it on here.

    So people are kept in the dark.

    Is this for their own good??

    Or for those in charge to keep it as a “need to know” basis??

    #508548
    sue esue e
    Member

    I kinda think it’s more “need us NOT to know”. Lotsa money tied up in oil which government makes quite a whack out of- you can see that the sudden interest in alternatives is driven by the fact that we are running out of the stuff but its about minimising the impact on those that sell oil -so not its happening fast enough to make much of a difference to climate change. Once it’s all gone then things will be different but there will be a lot of pain during the changeover. Hopefully the powers that be can over ride the oil companies and continue to encourage the uptake of alternatives.

    #508549
    HTHT
    Member

    I don’t think they will ever let it all be gone…but they will jack up the prices so much that the “great un-washed” will never be able to afford it.There will always be the have’s and the have nots.Our challenge for our families is to learn how to need it less and to be in a financial position to pay for an oil based product when required.

    HT

    #508550
    DB346DB346
    Member

    I think that if the population in general (ie the ‘sheeple’) all simultaneously new what many on ALS understand about Peak Oil and Resource Depletion, and what the implications are likely to be and the fact that western society is perilously skating on thin ice already, then it would only contribute to a SHTF situation or indeed cause it to happen!

    It is slowly being introduced and is becoming a more and more common term. It is showing up on the fringes of media, schools and universities are now talking about it and it has rated a mention in our political system. Slowly, it will become common and less provactive. It will not be too long until there is a general acceptance of the issues. If introduced and explained slowly but surely, there will not be a problem. If done fast and wide scale to all, there is likely to be problems.

    :shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

    #508551

    Like a few others on ALS, I have only recently become aware of “peak oil” and how close we really are… For those interested, I just found an excellent episode of Catalyst on this issue (that aired in September 2011). Catalyst is a mainstream Australian science program that I trust as a source of quality information (others will have to decide for themselves). As I couldn’t find the video on ALS already, I’m posting a link here:

    [video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK730U0Q4NU&feature=player_embedded[/video]

    #508552
    roadwarriorroadwarrior
    Member

    DB346 post=324547 wrote: I think that if the population in general (ie the ‘sheeple’) all simultaneously new what many on ALS understand about Peak Oil and Resource Depletion, and what the implications are likely to be and the fact that western society is perilously skating on thin ice already, then it would only contribute to a SHTF situation or indeed cause it to happen!

    This is indeed the problem that would occur, and is most likely the main reason why you don’t hear politicians talking about it.

    They understand that most of the global financial system is based on faith and confidence. If people get spooked, whether it be investors or consumers, then money starts disappearing from investments and starts getting hoarded “for a rainy day”. This quickly kills economic structures, and the house of cards falls apart.

    You could argue it’s already happening. People might not know the reason why, but the simple answer is enough wealth isn’t being generated through increasing oil production to make up for increasing debt, everything is becoming more expensive leading to less disposable cash, and people are holding back on frivolous purchases and the economy is stalling.

    The root cause is oil peaking, but there are so many things in the middle that can be blamed instead, nobody needs to mention it.

    I remember when John Howard was in power; correct me if I’m wrong but he never uttered the words “Climate Change”. “Peak Oil” will be on the politician’s banned phrase list for everyone except the Greens, but the sheeple don’t listen to them anyway.

    Europe is going to collapse shortly, they will knock down the US, which in turn will kill Chinese growth, which will then deflate the Australian mining boom.

    At a time when a lot more money is needed to invest in increasing (or maintaining) oil production, nobody will be investing. If you listen carefully to the people in power, Like Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, he doesn’t describe the situation as a loss of production of oil due to geological reasons, he describes it as a “lack of investment”.

    That’s a lot less scary than saying “we’re running out of oil”. We just need more money to invest in more oil production…and we’ve always got money right??? That is unless the peaking of oil collapses the economy, there’s no available credit, and the investment required to keep oil production ticking along suddenly evaporates.

    This is the hidden trap of peak oil that nobody will see coming, and why we have been warning about it for years.

    rw

    #508553
    owlbrudderowlbrudder
    Member

    roadwarrior post=332085 wrote: That’s a lot less scary than saying “we’re running out of oil”. We just need more money to invest in more oil production

    Weeeell, its a bit more complex than that. The problem is that we have run out of the cheap stuff, the easy to get stuff. There is plenty left, but it is going to be increasingly more expensive to extract, because it is deeper below the ocean, or in inhospitable areas like the Artic, or whatever. Many people mention the American oil shales, as if they are the next great source of crude, but the energy cost of extraction is almost the same as the energy return: in other words, it will take about the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, so is not worth doing.

    We will never ‘run out’, because there will always be some that we just can’t afford to recover. Our Western civilisation is in danger of collapsing, however, when we start having to pay the true embodied cost of the oil we use. Imagine the petrol price when oil reaches $200 per barrel. $300. $400. $1000.

    This will provoke the scenario commonly referred to as ‘when TSHTF’. I sometimes think humanity deserves the future it is making for itself and we have no-one to blame but ourselves.

    #508554

    For those interested, I have found another episode of Catalyst on the peak oil issue. The episode is actually from 2006 (and is several years older than I thought when I originally created this post). At any rate, here is the link:

    [video width=640 height=360 type=youtube]ko1ek3YNJ3o[/video]

    #508555
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    Its refreshing when you meet someone who is PO aware

    but its a catch 22 if everyone knows now, panic sets in and its harder to get ready or if everyone knows we start transitioning quicker and policy needs to change quickly (if it all doesn’t collapse first from the knowledge).

    Im assuming the people who should know do and there is nothing we can do about it, but get our self sufficiency up to scratch and build community.

    Im sorting out my garden and food forest and helping start a community garden and food forest,to share knowledge, skills and excess produce.

    Its hard to judge what level the collapse will be at,Im assuming worst case scenario is great depression, best case scenario is 1950s/60s and set my plans for that.

    If Im wrong, I get more money in my pocket with little sacrifice, if Im right I can smile knowing and eat my bread and suet.

    Major part is trying to figure out what to do while you can still afford it.

    Build stuff as building material will be expensive and scarce.

    Water tanks, Solar, solar hot water,aquaponics,electric bikes,wood gas or methane or biodiesel to run your car or machines.Pizza ovens,

    Super insulated fridges,water pumps (hand or solar for watering veggies).

    Buy machines mills,pasta makers, mixers,passata makers vacolla, bottling home brew kits,wine making, cheese making, sausage making equipment..etc…etc ..etc.

    #508556
    trandtotrandto
    Member

    Peak Oil is a little bit of a furphy, it’s really “peak cheap oil”… but bear with me…

    ABC Radio Nationals the Science Show had a piece on it last year, here’s a link.

    For years the IEA denied Peak Oil, but if you looked at their figures they just “assumed” more Oil would be discovered because that’s what happened in the past :whistle: but if you listen to the above show even the Chief Economist of the IEA recognises it as a huge problem and he makes note that he is having a hard time motivating Governments to plan for it.

    By 2014, supply is expected to fall short of demand. Other factors could bring that forward. Fatih Birol says the age of cheap oil is over and we all need to prepare ourselves for higher oil prices. Further he says no government is prepared for what lies ahead

    That aside, the other real issue is the “solutions”. People in the West (and we are the cause of the problem) will NEVER accept they have to lower their consumption (or enough for it to have a difference) so now we run into the problem of the future… which unfortunately seems to be extracting Oil from tar sands, shale and coal of which there is plenty (but that’s what we said about Oil 50 years ago as well !) but the environmental cost is staggering

    GLOBAL warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening. That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview with President Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast tar sands reserves “regardless of what we do.”

    If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate.

    Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history

    #508557
    Anonymous
    Guest

    can’t go with blaming teh masses ad-hock, there could be oodles out there trying to economise in lost of ways not just fuel, but there is no reward short of personal feeling good about it. the gov’ and oil co’s are leading us astray for profits sake, there are no viable affordable alternatives being put forward, the climate change people are the same blame the masses for living in a system we grew up with, where teh cost of living is artificially raised to cover ineffective gov’ working hand in glove with profit rakers.

    interesting to watch the punishment coming our way (public transport is a miserable failure, up here they took away our best people moving system trams/light rail). with a falling dollar, fuel prices sky rocketed on a rising dollar now what do the rip off merchants do for greed.

    before we blame the masses, offer some real no time alternatives, alternatives that will deliver all round, and hopefully trim some profits for the multi-nationals but then that will harm the gov’ money stream hey, can’t have that now can we? some poor little investor somewhere may hurt.

    for all the dooms sayers in all these furphies put your cards on the table, how about real affordable alternatives not pie in the sky stuff. look at the whole picture not what favours thinking processes.

    len

    #508558
    trandtotrandto
    Member

    gardenlen post=343613 wrote: for all the dooms sayers in all these furphies put your cards on the table, how about real affordable alternatives not pie in the sky stuff.

    Len

    I think you actually miss the issue completely, I am not being rude or spiteful here. You are asking for solutions, there AREN’T ANY, once again, there aren’t any solutions. The time to look for solutions was back in the 70’s. There is NOTHING that can be done, the carbon tax won’t help at all. Not being a doom sayer etc just pointing out to you why people don’t offer solutions.

    If you are genuinely interested in why they can’t, can I suggest you watch this series of videos on Youtube, it is a little dry, because it’s all factual based, it’s actually from a series back in 2000 but is startling in its prescience. It’s delivered by a Physics Professor and as he points out, the real issue with the World is the complete lack of understanding of the simple arithmetic. He starts out with simple maths, covers population growth, oil usage, coal usage and even copper usage. I think it incredibly worthwhile to watch and I rate it as probably the best thing I have seen in a decade.

    Here’s a link to the series

    http://www.yxutube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=bf_prev&list=SP6A1FD147A45EF50D

    You will have to copy and paste it into a new tab and replace the x in “yxutube” with an o because I can’t figure out how to post a link to a series on youtube (if I embed it, it only plays the first one (it’s 8 small videos that play one after the other on youtube, not just one video)

    If you do watch it I would be interested where you might find fault with it.

    #508559
    AndreAndre
    Keymaster

    Ah yes.. the Exponential Function vid … fascinating, and yes, dry .. but so good, nonetheless 🙂

    Seen it several times. Chilling each time.

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