Aussies Living Simply

Our New Normal

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  • #257528
    AlanEAlanE
    Participant

    I received an email from Getup just before with the attached information following the recent hot weather. The link to their site is http://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/climate-action-now/climate-infographic/our-new-normal

    The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia – 40.33 degrees, was set on Monday surpassing the old record of 40.17 °C set in 1976. (Bureau of Meteorology)

    The number of consecutive days where the national average maximum daily temperature exceeded 39°C has also been broken this week—seven (7) days (between 2–8 January 2013), almost doubling the previous record of four (4) consecutive days in 1973, (BOM)

    According to the National Climate Data Centre, nine of the 10 hottest years on record have been since 2000 (the other is 1998).

    While temperatures vary on a local and regional scale, globally it has now been 27 years since the world experienced a month that was colder than average. “If you’re 27 or younger, you’ve never experienced a colder-than-average month” – Philip Bump, Grist, November 16, 2012.

    The CSIRO has found Australian annual average daily maximum temperatures have steadily increased in the last hundred years, with most of the warming trend occurring since 1970.

    The Bushfire CRC (Cooperative Research Centre) says large areas of southern Australia, from the east coast to the west coast, face “above average fire potential” in the summer of 2012-13. According to the Climate Institute extreme fire danger days are expected to rise more than 15 per cent in south-eastern Australia.

    The last four months of 2012 – globally – were the hottest on record. (British Met Office) and 2012 was the hottest year the continental United States of America has ever recorded.(“2012 Was the Hottest Year in U.S. History. And Yes – It’s Climate Change”, Bryan Walsh, TIME 8 January, 2013).

    The hot-dry trend is expected to continue, with the Climate Commission predicting large increases in the number of days over 35°C this century.

    Around the world, 2013 could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain’s Met Office. If that turns out to be accurate, 2013 would surpass the previous record, held jointly by 2005 and 2010.

    #530168
    lostinthefoglostinthefog
    Member

    Firstly, I would like to say I have no axe to grind regarding ‘global warming’, I do think our climate is changing for whatever reason..man made, natural, whatever.. BUT I do think campaigns such as the above are bordering on the hysterical and are probably not even accurate…for instance the headline ‘Tasmanias’ hottest day in 120 years’, not in my area of Tasmania it wasn’t!! Our max that day was 36.3 C, January 2009 had a day of 41.6, much hotter! And furthermore I doubt the accuracy of temperature records from 100 plus years ago or even now for that matter.

    As for the time of European settlement of Australia, there certainly weren’t accurate records at that time, so nobody can say with any certainty what the climate was doing then as there is only anecdotal evidence…

    I don’t know what agenda this organization has but hysteria and over dramatisation never did any good for any cause…

    #530169
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    Whats your agenda?

    #530170
    lostinthefoglostinthefog
    Member

    I have no agenda, Snags! I just have an extreme dislike of innaccuracies spouted as ‘facts’…looking at the climate records for our area…always presuming they are accurate of course, which they may not be…then our present weather is pretty much average and has been so as far back as I cared to look..in fact last summer was a bit cooler than average…so when some group states that ‘Tasmania has hottest day in 120 years’ then they are either deliberately or otherwise (and I rather hope it is unintentional)spreading an innaccuracy….perhaps it WAS the hottest day for 120 years for a small area of Tasmania(if the old records can be trusted)but it certainly wasn’t for the entire state. So of course that immediately casts doubt on any other ‘facts’ this organisation puts forth…

    #530171
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    lostinthefog post=352244 wrote: bordering on the hysterical and are probably not even accurate…for instance the headline ‘Tasmanias’ hottest day in 120 years’, not in my area of Tasmania it wasn’t!! Our max that day was 36.3 C, January 2009 had a day of 41.6, much hotter!

    Are you upset because they mentioned Tasmania and should have given an over all average of the maximum Tasmanian temperature when they where actually only talking about Hobart ?

    I googled ‘Tasmanias’ hottest day in 120 years’ and all you get is

    “In Tasmania, Hobart recorded their hottest day for 120 years on Friday, 41.8 degrees centigrade, as bush fires raged across the island.”

    So is it journalist or the BOM that you think is to blame ?

    Also found this Headline from back in 2009 says “Tasmania has recorded its highest-ever temperature.”

    Flinders Island airport broke the three-decade-old record, reaching 41.5 degrees just before 4:00pm AEDT.

    The previous high was 40.8 degrees, set in Hobart in 1976.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-01-29/tas-records-highest-ever-temperature/277506

    Tasmania has recorded its highest-ever temperature.

    Seems like there is a hot weather record being broken there every year.

    #530172
    BullseyeBullseye
    Member

    lostinthefog said:

    so when some group states that ‘Tasmania has hottest day in 120 years’ then they are either deliberately or otherwise (and I rather hope it is unintentional)spreading an innaccuracy

    Would it be prudent to check some facts lostinthefog?

    Then you state:

    “So of course that immediately casts doubt on any other ‘facts’ this organisation puts forth…”

    That “some group” you’re referring to, well where the data came from happens to be the The Bureau of Meteorology. It was Hobart with a record hottest day for 120 years on 4th January 2013, 41.8 degrees C.

    “it’s time to face the heat”

    #530173
    lostinthefoglostinthefog
    Member

    If you look closely you will see the various statistics and quotes have been filched from various sources…they don’t give a source for the Tasmanian quote. As far as I can see Tasmanian ‘record’ highs have climbed by a whopping .7 of a degree in the last 37 years…scary stuff! If they had THAT for a headline it would be the truth and it would put it into context but it wouldn’t be anywhere near as dramatic.

    It doesn’t matter what the truth of the matter is or what one’s own personal beliefs on the subject are…it is clear that the group that appears to be responsible for the content of the initial post is interested in creating the maximum amount of alarm without offering any sort of solution, anyone reading those headlines would immediately be under the impression that the whole state of Tasmania had had its hottest day in 120 years-which is clearly NOT the case and debatable as I doubt there has been RELIABLE instrumentation or record keeping for that amount of time. Even the 250 homes lost is misleading as I believe this figure was for all BUILDINGS…not just homes.

    I don’t have it in for anybody in particular tho’ I do believe the media has a lot to answer for…I just think that statistics shouldn’t be bandied about or manipulated in a misleading and alarmist fashion…

    Snags and Bullseye…you seem to be the ones’ getting hot under the collar(unconcious climate humour, not me!

    #530174
    SnagsSnags
    Member

    lostinthefog post=352259 wrote: As far as I can see Tasmanian ‘record’ highs have climbed by a whopping .7 of a degree in the last 37 years…scary stuff! If they had THAT for a headline it would be the truth and it would put it into context but it wouldn’t be anywhere near as dramatic.

    So the problem was the hottest day in 120 years of record taking is the bit that got you hot under the collar.

    I agree records over 120 years may be not as accurate, it might of been cooler back then.

    Re not being scared of a .7 degree rise in 37 years,what would be the minimum rise in degrees that would scare you ?

    Scientists talk about 2 degrees as being critical,is that too low to be scared?

    .7 seems to be nearly half of that already in less than 37 years.

    Considering there has been a lot more oil and coal burnt and trees cut down in the last 37 years we should smash that record in the next 37.

    #530175
    Lady BeeLady Bee
    Keymaster

    Please read and take notice!

    Just wanted to let you all know that this thread is being closely monitored as it is feared that this will end up the same as numerous past threads – ie locked because of personal attacks.

    I’m not saying that has happened in this thread yet, but if it does, those persons considered responsible will face suspension from ALS as the Admins and moderators have had enough of this kind of behaviour. Please keep to the topic, state your arguments clearly and concisely and respect other members even though their point of view may be different to your own.

    Thank you,

    ALS Admin and Mod Team.

    #530176
    lostinthefoglostinthefog
    Member

    Snags…in my first post I think I said that I wasn’t a non-believer as far as climate change goes…I believe that for the most part it is in the nature of our planet to have a constant change of climate, there is bucketloads of evidence that shows the dramatic changes that have happened over millenia…obviously not from any of human activities,I think what is happening to the climate now is also a natural change but exacerbated by human activity, that’s my opinion and I am entitled to that opinion…I have no problem with other people having a different opinion and I have no desire or intention to argue about climate change with you or anyone for that matter…what DOES annoy me is the sensationalist way that the climate change argument is presented and how facts and figures are manipulated to make a more dramatic effect…I don’t automatically believe everything I read or hear..but some people do, especially if it smacks of authority or science…after all scientists are very often wrong and we all know the media hasn’t exactly got a glowing record for truthful reporting..

    As for being scared…why would I be? For one thing humans do have a brilliant record of coping with change…part of the reason we are such a successful species…. and we will probably muddle through and adapt.

    #530177
    BullseyeBullseye
    Member

    lostinthefog:

    Snags and Bullseye…you seem to be the ones’ getting hot under the collar(unconcious climate humour, not me!

    Whatever gave you that idea? 🙂

    Not wearing a collar to even get the heat under! :wave:

    It’s too damn hot for even a shirt… It’s only 31 deg C. :tup:

    I don’t know how I ever coped working in temps above the high 30’s… :whistle:

    Increasing temperatures is not beneficial, particularly at first hand regarding threatened and endangered species I’ve researched over the years. Some of these animals will very likely go extinct. “Our New Normal” is approaching way to fast, for multitudes of species, for adaptation to this unprecedented climate change. Naturally occurring climate change that proceeded this fast and even slower, over much longer time periods, brought about mass extinction.

    #530178
    ZeitgeistZeitgeist
    Member

    According to this even the boffins can’t agree or understand what they are agreeing on http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/ Surprise surprise apparently the sun has something to do with heating the planet, who would have thought.

    At the end of the day when the planet is no longer conducive to life as we know it, it will all end. It’s fairly simple really and i can’t figure out what all the fuss is about. Want what you have and be happy.

    #530179
    casalentacasalenta
    Member

    lostinthefog post=352274 wrote: that’s my opinion and I am entitled to that opinion…

    No, what I’ve discovered is you are only entitled to your opinion if you agree with the “official” opinion.

    lostinthefog post=352274 wrote: what DOES annoy me is the sensationalist way that the climate change argument is presented and how facts and figures are manipulated to make a more dramatic effect…

    Couldn’t have said it better myself.

    lostinthefog post=352274 wrote: As for being scared…why would I be? For one thing humans do have a brilliant record of coping with change…part of the reason we are such a successful species…. and we will probably muddle through and adapt.

    Yes, of course – that’s why there’s 7 billion of us. We are supremely adaptable.

    BTW, since the temperatures were the hottest for 120 years, that surely means it was hotter 120 years ago. But of course if that doesn’t fit with the official opinion then of course the data must be wrong.

    #530180
    Hummer HumbugHummer
    Keymaster

    casalenta post=352289 wrote: But of course if that doesn’t fit with the official opinion then of course the data must be wrong.

    LOL.. now that statement is simply not true!

    #530181
    lostinthefoglostinthefog
    Member

    That’s right Zeitgeist…even the ‘experts’ can’t agree so how us mere mortals are supposed to make sense of it , I don’t know! And I agree Casalenta..if the data doesn’t fit the theory then they just say the data is incorrect!

    Who remembers the ‘hole in the Ozone layer’, you never hear anything about that these days but I can remember 20 years back it was debated about nearly as much as the current climate change. How it was growing every year and what the consequences would be(all dire)…blah blah blah…

    I’m reading a very interesting book ATM called ‘The Fruit Hunters’, basically about exotic fruit and man’s history with fruit, in the Middle Ages the ‘scientists’ of the day strongly advised against the eating of any kind of fruit, cautioning that not only was it generally not good for health but could even lead to premature death…this seems laughable to us now but these were the ‘experts’ of the day, no doubt some individuals disagreed (thank goodness!)and gradually fruits were excepted as being ‘good for you’, this may seem ‘off topic’ but it is just one example of many where something was generally believed by everyone because they had been told it was so by an expert!

    Scientists are our ‘shamans’ and probably are no more reliable, I read somewhere that there is no surer way of making the bulk of the population believe something than putting the words ‘a recent scientific study has shown’ in front of it!

    Of course there will be extinctions as the worlds climate changes…hasn’t this always been the case? The world has recovered from mass extinctions before…if we want to be totally cold hearted the best think that could happen to the planet would be a mass extinction of humans! Which reminds me of a funny quote I read that said the only things that would survive a major nuclear incident would be cockroaches and Keith Richards!

    Anyway that’s me done on the subject…none of us will survive forever whatever the vagaries of the climate…whether the planet survives, who knows, as the scientists tell us we might get hit by a giant meteorite at any tick of the clock!

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