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NESA government report-energy security.

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  • #253540
    murdamcloudmurdamcloud
    Member

    http://www.ret.gov.au/energy/Documents/Energy%20Security/National-Energy-Security-Assessment-2009.pdf

    Has anyone seen this report before? I tried to show it(and the Lloyd’s 360 Risk report) to the executive group at work but they basically laughed at me.

    I’d be interested to hear what others think of it.

    especially;

    1. Is enough being done to educate the public, if not why not? (I know, I know, sounds like a stupid question-haha-I’ll award 10 marks for the silliest answer.)

    2. Is it ‘accurate’?

    3. What are the immediate concerns if this report were the only thing to go by?

    I think the term ‘energy security’ is going to become ubiquitous soon.

    Thanks all.

    #481068
    AndreAndre
    Keymaster

    G’day murdamcloud

    What work are you in?.. B)

    Admittedly, I did not read the entire document, but to answer your questions:

    (and this is just my opinion 🙂

    1. Is enough being done to educate the public, if not why not? (I know, I know, sounds like a stupid question-haha-I’ll award 10 marks for the silliest answer.)

    From my day to day living, I would think that if the populace were being educated, they would be attempting to reduce their energy use (and carbon footprint). So far, I still see people driving short distances where a bike or walk would have sufficed – especially on a nice day.

    I see office lights, and even household lights on constantly (eg:the big powerful security lights on peoples front porch)

    And there doesn’t seem to be any effort to close fridge doors when people are selecting items.

    All little things I know, but added up over a population, it indicates to me a lack of awareness.

    Any ‘education’ – like posters and radio programs, are only being listened to my those that have already made an effort.

    Perhaps the population prefers to remain ignorant, as the alternative isn’t a nice place to be…

    2. Is it ‘accurate’?

    Perhaps I am a sceptic, but I feel any documentation these days brought out by governments will cater to what is best for them.

    If they tell the truth, then investment will slow down; businesses will fail, and the populace will panic.

    So now, while some of it might be based on truth, we all now that the best lie is that which contains a bit of truth…. I suspect this paper has used that idiom as its foundation.

    3. What are the immediate concerns if this report were the only thing to go by?

    I’d know this if I read it fully …

    I’m a ‘Peak Oilist’. Whether it is sooner or later, it will happen. I have no doubts whatsoever.

    (personally, I reckon sooner 🙁 )

    If I had to guess, I’d say the immediate concerns is the belief that liquid fuels are adequate and secure.

    The moment they say that, then any real investment/interest in alternative fuels/energy is relegated to the back-seat.

    Having said that, the moment the government heads towards seriously talking about the Peak Oil threat, then all hell will break loose- panic buying, large price hikes etc …

    Either way though, governments can’t win – if they talk about it, the above will happen (because nothing stable has been put in place to cater for it), if they don’t, it will only make it much worse for everyone the longer it takes to face the harsh reality.

    Cheers,

    Andre

    #481069
    murdamcloudmurdamcloud
    Member

    Thanks Andre-I find myself in agreement with pretty much everything you say. I do see some ‘pain’ coming but I’m hopeful that we can adapt and thrive(in some form) perhaps not in the way that we have become accustomed to in the past 150 years(in the west, at least).

    My company has a huge reliance on cheap petrol for food transportation-this is a huge liability when price and supply stability goes wrong. It is sorely exposed to this and does not choose to see the problem. Icebergs and the Titanic come to mind.

    I work in IT at the moment but I’m going to Uni to study healthcare. I really think that having skills in some of the most basic needs of humankind will be essential for me in the forthcoming transformation(?)

    (I hope I don’t sound like a Raelian when I talk like this. Haha)

    #481070
    StephanieStephanie
    Member

    My main objection to it is that there is only ONE number in the report: the no of RETs required at some time in the future!

    All the rest is a series of assumptions pulled out of thin air.

    We have VAST amount of LNG on the North West Shelf which we should be using.

    At current retail prices, every dollar of LNG used is 2 -3 dollars of crude we don’t import. Thus saving heaps of foreign exchange and interest payments, giving more money to re-invest in our infrastructure, health, education etc

    #481071
    murdamcloudmurdamcloud
    Member

    I thought much the same, Stephanie. The report is short on concrete findings and has a few various buckets of likelihood and risk. Not very specific. ‘Don’t worry, people. The government knows what it is doing,’ is what it seems to say to me.

    I am skeptical about the whole RETs and carbon tax schemes-mostly because I heard that Goldman Sachs is pushing for some kind of trading exchange which would no doubt become subject to the kind of magical asset inflating that the big banks managed to introduce to ‘normal’ exchanges.

    LNG should keep us in a better position for a while, but much of it still requires oil to facilitate extraction-at least that is my understanding. Plus I thought that production is not as predictable as with oil, from what I’ve read. Still, a very handy energy asset.

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