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Eyes on the weather

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    I’ve been following the development of the tropical lows in the north Coral Sea all this week. It is getting very interesting! There are various models suggesting potential tropical cyclone paths. The BOM predict a tropical cyclone will form in the next 24 hours. The generally accepted path the TC will take is WSW towards the QLD coast, then turn SE along the coastline. How close it will track along the coastline is up for great speculation at the moment.

    However, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model indicates a TC will cross at the Wide Bay coast next Tuesday. The model over the past several days has been placing this TC closer and closer to the coast with each run. It is certainly something to keep an eye on if you’re located anywhere along the Central and SE Queensland coast.

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts


    Im crossing my fingers that we get some good rain. The bits of rain that has been around Brissy the last few days……well I didnt even get one drop. Was very disapointed. Our tanks are about 1/3 full so was hoping to top them up, and also hoping for a drink for the gardens.


    I’m crossing my fingers we don’t get blown off the face of the planet, because that model shows a potential cyclone crossing the coast right over my property.

    See the NOGAPS Model URL it’s indicating the same scenario as the EC model.

    NOGAPS Model

    Sorry, you folks in NT & WA, forgot to mention you, it looks like a bumpy ride over there too…


    g’day bullseye,

    like the grammatics hey. must keep that link for myself as well.

    yeh BOM having each way bet they know we need cyclone to cross around bundy to bring tropical rain depression down into this sth/east catchment area, and if big enough depression over the range into the downs area.

    but bom being bom they don’t do any real observations and they keep in mind not to panic the tourism industry, so they play their 3d games over many cups of coffee.

    so fingers crossed that what is needed happens, and further extremeties crossed that those who are living in the path and are prepared even those who aren’t that there will be no dramatic damage just rain and heaps of it.



    Well Bullseye my fingers crossed to as it will be over us as well. Never mind Hubby built chook pen so strong the girls will just have to move over.


    Thanks for advice. It sounds like a good reason to head into Bundy tomorrow to stock up on a few extra things. Otherwise I would have left it until next Wednesday which might not be a good idea. Also I’ll do a bit of a check that everthing is secure around the yard. The baby ducklings might need to be relocated so that they don’t get early flying lessons though.

    But gee, if it brings some rain to the Wide Bay area it’ll be a God send. My Dad’s property is inland from Gympie no one can ever remember it being that dry there.



    I hope it brings good rain where it’s desperately needed but for all those in the path, I hope you are all safe.

    Good idea on stocking up, Ange. When they declare the TC and it starts heading for the coast, the stocks will be too low to make it worth while. Don’t forget to fill lots of water bottles too.


    Here’s a few links to rainfall totals on the SE QLD coast, 7-day Operational Consensus Forecasts.

    South Coast Curtis

    South Coast Moreton & Brisbane


    Thanks for the links, bullseye. My SIL was here yesterday and I showed him your first link. He works away but after seeing the link he’s planning on being here with his wife on Tuesday. :tup:


    Nimey – sorry to read you aren’t getting any of this rain.

    (not that it’s a lot, but its a steady bit of rain / drizzle most nights at the moment)


    Well I got my wish. We had 11mm overnight!! You would not believe how happy I am.:D


    Oh, yes we would Nimey. 😀 That’s a nice drop to add to your tanks. Hope you get some more.



    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


    Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

    Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.

    Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.


    for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East

    Issued at 2:30pm on Sunday the 4th of March 2007

    Tropical Cyclone Odette, Category 1, is currently located over the central Coral

    Sea near 16.6S 154.8E and is near stationary.

    The potential for further deepening is low. In fact, the tropical cyclone may

    degenerate into a weak tropical low within the next 24 hours.


    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


    Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


    For 3pm EST on Sunday the 4th of March 2007

    At 3 pm EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Odette has weakened into a tropical low

    and poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast. The system is located

    over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.2 south, longitude 155.5 east, which is

    about 850 km northeast of Mackay. This low will remain slow moving over the next

    few days.


    Odette lived and died a short life, from competition ([wikipedia]Fujiwhara interaction[/wikipedia]) with another low NW of her and massive [wikipedia]Wind Shear[/wikipedia]. RIP TC Odette.

    I’ve never known so much hope to be placed on the rain delivering effect of a [wikipedia]Tropical Cyclone[/wikipedia] before. I think this shows just how dire the water crisis is!

    Hopefully it’s not too late for another cyclone to form and dump rain over Central & SE QLD.

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