October 11, 2010 at 8:10 am #253392
Talking about PO and the coming collapse is a bit like chicken little screaming “wolf”, at least in Australia. Here, I cannot see any signs of collapse and our economy is going strong.
According to what I read, the US and Europe are in dire straits, but Australia? We simply ship a bit more coal to China (an ruin a bit of the climate). Even if the Chinese economy wouldn’t run strong, I guess we would still export sufficient to live a decent maybe not so affluent live.
Do you feel like chicken little? And are my observations wrong?October 11, 2010 at 9:01 am #479779osakasuzMember
I want the peak oil stuff to be wrong…. but chicken little was right in the end, wasn’t he?October 11, 2010 at 11:43 pm #479780beccaMember
Hang on, let’s get our fairy tales right! 😆
In the story of Chicken Little you hear, the sky wasn’t really falling, it was an acorn, and had they stayed where they were (and not listened to Chicken Little/Henny Penny), they would have all been safe.
Now, the Boy who Cried Wolf was right in the end, but nobody believed him because all the other times he’d been making it up…
I’ve been doing some more reading about Peak Oil since working on the Bundeswehr report a little with one of the writers from Energy Bulletin, and one of the things that suprised me (but shouldn’t have) was that it’s not really about the decreasing supply as such, because if it were, then we really would be fine here in Aus, at least for a while.
It’s about the fact that oil is the basis for our global economy. It’s the collapse of the economy which will be devastating. Don’t think of it as like an oil shock – while those scenarios can give us some indication of public reactions to oil shortages, it’s not really the same thing.October 12, 2010 at 1:16 am #479781DanHowerMember
Thanks for that interesting aspect, Becca.
That explains why the Bundeswehr in their conclusion make the statement, that something similar like Transition Towns would probably be the best way of living.
BTW The US Army has published a similar paper some weeks ago. Even in English which might be helpful for some 😉October 12, 2010 at 9:21 pm #479782osakasuzMember
:lol::lol: Oops – I should have thought about that more. You are quite right about the stories!
I like the ‘theory of anyway’ which is that all these preparations – like transition towns, local,sustainable systems are things we should be doing anyway, whether or not cimate change/peak oil/choose your scenario actually is as bad as we predict. Even if none of these dramas unfold, the way of life is greatly improved by cutting down on fossil fuel dependance.October 12, 2010 at 10:33 pm #479783beccaMember
Me too, Suz – I also have some fairly sceptical (when it comes to climate change and peak oil) acquaintances and my response to them is, “don’t you want to live in a less polluted world?” gets them (almost) every time… who’s going to say no to that?!!October 13, 2010 at 9:50 am #479784
The economic collapse might only be the nicer part of PO. The bad part might be the wars. Look at the wars currently fought, look about the tensions over the Arctic or at how they try to overhaul Chavez.
But on the other hand there is a huge gas find at the Israelian coast (which might cause other tensions).
Anyone the link to the US report??
If, say the US economy falls, Europe might follow, but there is still Asia going strong which might be a huge internal market. It is very possible that they will have an economic crisis as well, but, as Europe and especially the US are in so deep trouble, they might emerge once again and get on polluting our environment and then they might have enough oil for them.October 13, 2010 at 10:59 am #479785DB346Member
Australia is somewhat insulated from many external factors, but certainly not all.
Me thinks we have another 1-2 GFC like events to tackle in the next 5-10 years, before the sheeple start to become fully aware that resource depletion/misuse (tied in with our global capitalist ways) is the underlying cause of most of our woes.
I consider these to be steps down, every few years, until when TSHTF (after about 4 GFC like events) and all of a sudden, there will be no more steps and just a free fall.
On that cheery note, I sincerely hope my dire analyisis of the situation is proven not to be correct and in 10 years time people will be telling me….’See told ya there was nothing to worry about!’…(need a fingers crossed emoticon)October 13, 2010 at 11:28 am #479786
We’re talking about PO since the sixties now. First energy crisis when we got aware that our way of life depends on the Arabs, we went back to normal. Then came “Global 2000”, but they were wrong and the North Sea oil amongst other field was discovered.
Now it seams that we are past peak, but still if the next financial crisis smashed a few countries (USA and Europe) the rest (Chinindia) might still be OK or goes through a crisis and then recovers then they could go on and party for a while and would have most of the oil.October 30, 2010 at 2:06 am #479787murdamcloudMember
I feel like Wolf Little in my family. I keep asking my beautiful, imaginative, intelligent and loving children to think what life would be like without: iPods and the internet and certain plastics and medicines and gore-tex and food from the other side of the country/world….and so on and so forth. I am learning to breathe deeply before saying, “I think that….,”
I actually think that the hidden effects of going past peak may well be one of the causes of the ongoing GFC. I say ongoing, because I see that 40 million people are on food stamps in the US.
I do think that we are capable of working out new ways of living-as is evidenced by you lovely people on this website. Not only that, I can’t see the energy descent wiping out compassion, camaraderie and love and music or friendship. These things will be essential to me in the future, just as they have been essential in the past.October 30, 2010 at 3:11 am #479788weaverMember
Unbelievable that 40 million people are on food stamps in the USA but having worked in welfare for a very long time (still do) I know that hundreds of thousands of Australians also rely on handouts from both the government and many non-government agencies. I wonder what will happen to all these people when there is nothing to handout??? I think we need to be encouraging community gardens and growing food for food security rather than encouraging reliance on handouts.December 8, 2010 at 11:55 pm #479789trandtoMember
weaver post=294064 wrote: Unbelievable that 40 million people are on food stamps in the USA but having worked in welfare for a very long time (still do) I know that hundreds of thousands of Australians also rely on handouts from both the government and many non-government agencies.
It’s worse here, welfare in Australia accounts for the main income for 25% of Australians. Another 25% rely on Gov’t for there employment (public servants etc) the rest of Australia has to support that huge bill trying to be productive.
Take out the huge percentage in service based industries eg dog washing, mowing etc then there are very few people that actually are productive for the country ie bring money in to support the rest. These would be the likes of tourism, educators of overseas students, Primary Industries (Mining, Agriculture etc) Now regardless of what you think of the last two, without the billions and billions of dollars of tax and royalties they pay, Australia would not be able to afford that massive welfare bill each week.
As to peak oil it’s like the old analogy about the frog in water, people won’t notice. Third world countries will suffer first as they always do, being unable to buy fuel at all, *we already rob them of food) first world countries will pay much higher prices for fuel but it will be accepted as it will happen slowly like everything else eg erosion of liberties, climate change etcDecember 9, 2010 at 11:58 am #479790BootstrapperMember
Well, all those who cried “Wolf!” have now been vindicated as the IEA has admitted that PO occurred in 2006.:laugh:December 9, 2010 at 7:52 pm #479791DB346Member
Had to happen eventually. Does not mean any change to how or what Govts around the world do or do not do wrt Resource management/depletion.
Interesting that 2006 is identified. Research from many a reputable source indicated early 2008 as the tipping point. Will have to have a much closer look.
Oh well, the main thing is they have removed their heads from the sand and are facing reality. Maybe it may cause people to have another look!December 9, 2010 at 9:45 pm #479792murdamcloudMember
I am surprised and somewhat heartened by the IEA facing reality and in some sense(within their power structure) of going out on a limb.
I’m gaining some traction in my household with respect to influencing the prevailing worldview. I love my family and want to ensure (as much as I humanly can) that they are prepared, at least mentally. I’m lucky in a way-I was born during a war and during the first three years of my life somewhere in the region of a million souls perished due to the war, and famine. So my family of origin has a history steeped in the essential fickleness of ‘society’ in being able to function on a large scale when a few certain factors disappear. Those factors include benign governmental control, money, energy, food. Maybe we live in an illusion of a robust society, especially now.
Thanks again ALSers. You all give me hope and that’s a powerful feeling to have when heading into a storm.
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