For those of you interested, Dr. Roger Bezdek (coauthor of the landmark Hirsch report on Peak Oil) will be doing a speaking tour of Australia this month. I talked to him yesterday about peak oil, global warming, and Australia- you can listen to it at Global Public Media: http://globalpublicmedia.com/roger_bezdek_on_peak_oil_global_warming_and_australia
I won't be able to attend any of his presentations, so I was glad to have the chance to talk to him over the phone. If anyone attends, please report back!
Dr Bezdek took the approach of busting the various 'peak-oil' myths he came
across in his research on behalf of the US government.
Myth 1: "The world is running out of oil!"
He gave a run-down of the real meaning of peak oil, ie. when the oil production
of a field/district/country/the world reaches its peak production rates and
thereafter production rates will inevitably decline. (The oil won't just run out
suddenly like when you reach the end of a milkshake.) This usually happens at
about the time one half of the ultimate production has been 'produced'. Many
fields and districts have peaked and are now declining in production rates. Some
countries have already peaked, eg. US, Indonesia, Australia, UK. He said the
timing of the world peak will depend on what estimate of world oil availability
is more accurate. The pessimists say there was only 2 trillion barrels of oil
available, therefore peak has happened/or is very imminent, as we've already used 1 trillion barrels. The optimists say we have at least 2 trillion barrels left
available and therefore we won't peak for another 20 years or more.
Myth 2: "All the predictions of peak oil to date have been wrong, therefore it
won't happen"
Peak oil deniers say that the wrong timing predictions mean the proponents of
peak oil are not credible. King Hubbard predicted USA would peak in 1970. He
was wrong. They peaked in 1971. It's impossible to reliably predict the exact
date because the data on oil availability is very unreliable (especially from
Saudia Arabia). The predictions range from 2005 to 2030. Dr Bezdek said the oil
geologists he's spoken to are all pessimistic. They all think the peak is likely
sooner than later. If there is still so much easy oil available, why are oil
companies bothering with driling in deep, almost inaccessible and very expensive
to access areas. He also showed a graph of the expected peaks according to
estimated world oil capacity. Even if there is another 2 trillion barrels left,
at the current rate of growth in use, the peak will only be pushed forward
another 10 years.
Myth 3: "Higher prices will 'create' more oil"
"The economists are better at finding new oil than we oil geologists."
The amount of oil on Earth is a geological reality. The economy can't change
reality, only how it is used. The higher prices will decrease demand, thus
increasing the availability to those who can pay more, by denying it and it's
products to those who can't afford it. This is demand destruction.
Myth 4: "Don't worry. The world will muddle through"
Dr Bezdek said if the world continues as it is, when the world production passes
peak and begins the inevitable decline, it will be a abrupt shock to the world
economy and society necessitating some painful changes. Increasing prices will
lead to increasing costs of production, inflation, recession/depression,
unemployment as businesses go under. In fact, a decrease in the average standard of living as well as GDP. After the peak, oil supply is no longer elastic: it is set and continually decreasing. The demand side is all we have control over.
Myth 5: "It's just another energy crisis"
The god of the modern world is oil. It is the lifeblood of our civilisation.
Last time, when USA peaked, there was a oil available from elsewhere to take over supplying their needs. This time, when the world peaks, there is no-where else to look for it. It would take decades to replace the national fleet of cars and
trucks to alternative/more efficient vehicles. We don't have decades.
Myth 6: "Renewables will save us"
Most of the well-developed renewable technology doesn't produce liquid fuels.
Those that do (biodiesel / ethanol) burn food products which increases the cost
of food. The act of farming and processing the crops (conventionally) to produce
the biofuels is in itself very energy intensive (diesel, fertilizer, pesticides
all oil/gas products) and use more energy than is produced from the crop.
Myth 7: "Government intervention is not required"
When conditions get too difficult, people will demand their governments do
'something' to fix it. Dr Bezdek said that it is better for governments to act
now by encouraging energy-saving programs, rational taxation, research on all
alternatives, market-neutral subsidies and public education. They should avoid
rationing, price controls, subsidies benefiting some industries/companies over
others, discriminatory regulations and micromanaging the situation.
Myth 8: "Why worry. We've got lots of time"
The Hirsch Report said we would need about 20 years to prepare the
society/economy for peak oil without pain/disruption. Even with the most
optimistic estimations of the timing of peak oil (about 2030), we don't have 20
years left. Even if we act immediately to improve efficiency of energy use and
reduce our needs, there will be pain. There is no sign of any widespread attempts
to act yet. The longer we wait the worst the damage.
Myth 9: "It's the end of civilization!"
Dr Bezdek is sure it won't be like Mad Max (more like the Great Depression that
never seems to end), but mitigating efforts need to start now.
Policy Recommendations for Australia
1. Federal Government
. set up an independent non-political research group to look at peak oil, the
options for Australia and a strategy to reduce adverse impacts and commit to
following the plan.
. push for increasing efficiency of oil use
. support the development of all alternatives, without playing favourites:
biofuels, solar/mains electric vehicles, hydrogen, oilshale, coal to liquid...
. taxation regimens to encourage new industry, not just to benefit the large
established ones.
2. State and Local Government
. encourage and support development of telecommuting, mass transit systems,
fuel-efficiency programs.
. land use planning and regulations to enable research and development of
alternative energy industries.
. town planning to increase efficiency of transport (roads, rail, ferries ...)
and access to goods and services (decentralisation (moving jobs to the people),
mass transit services, medium/high density housing near jobs).
3. All government bodies.
. Public education: what the problem is, what is being done about it, what they
can do to help.
. Action must be a co-operative effort outside party politics.
During the question time 2 more points were made:
1. The biggest impacts and hardship will be in the developing countries as they
have much reduced capacity to absorb oil price rises.
2. A gentleman from the audience said that Brazil have been successful in
replacing a high proportion of their oil use with ethanol from sugar cane and
wouldn't that be a viable replacement for oil here as well? Dr Bezdek pointed out
that Brazil's use of oil was very low compared to many western countries and
ethanol alone can't totally replace oil use, but it could be an important part of
a basket of many alternatives.
Finally, a local politician ( Rachel .. somebody, sorry didn't get her name written down) was called to give a thank you speech to Dr Bezdek and made the point that, with their need to be mindful of public opinion to stay in office, a democratic government may not have the ability to effect change in time to mitigate the effects of peak oil as the effect on the Australian economy is not yet evident.
Wow! Katinkate, that was fantastic! Thank you for such a detailed report! I commented on my original interview at GPM and put a link to your summary- thank you again.
1. Federal Government
. set up an independent non-political research group to look at peak oil, the
options for Australia and a strategy to reduce adverse impacts and commit to
following the plan.
. push for increasing efficiency of oil use
. support the development of all alternatives, without playing favourites:
biofuels, solar/mains electric vehicles, hydrogen, oilshale, coal to liquid...
. taxation regimens to encourage new industry, not just to benefit the large
established ones.
Thanks Katinkate!
The above worries me as it does not factor in global warming.........
"I teach self reliance, the world's most subversive practice. I teach people how to grow their own food, which is shockingly subversive. Yes It's seditious. But it's peacful sedition" - Bill Mollison
1. Federal Government
. set up an independent non-political research group to look at peak oil, the
options for Australia and a strategy to reduce adverse impacts and commit to
following the plan.
. push for increasing efficiency of oil use
. support the development of all alternatives, without playing favourites:
biofuels, solar/mains electric vehicles, hydrogen, oilshale, coal to liquid...
. taxation regimens to encourage new industry, not just to benefit the large
established ones.
Thanks Katinkate!
The above worries me as it does not factor in global warming.........
Nev
Yes, and with the PTB penchant for siding with 'busines as usual' and the economy over 'the environment' it is a worry. I don't think many of those who are not environmentally-minded are going to be happy to restrict themselves for global warming - they are going to be really p**sed off when the realities of peak oil start impacting their lives.
